Colchester Public Schools
Colchester, CT
School Year 2025-26 Enrollment Projection Report
Copyright, New England School Development Council, 2025
Table of Contents
Section Page
Enrollment Summary…..................................................................................................... 1
Historical Enrollment Table…............................................................................................ 2
Historical Enrollment Graph…........................................................................................... 3
Projected Enrollment Table…............................................................................................ 4
Projected Enrollment Graph…........................................................................................... 5
Historical & Projected Enrollment Graph…......................................................................... 6
Historical & Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations Line Graph……........................... 7
Historical & Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations Stacked Column Graph……......... 8
Birth to Kindergarten Relationship Graph…........................................................................ 9
Additional Information ….................................................................................................. 10
New England PK-12 Enrollment Trends…........................................................................... 11
Projection Methodology and Reliability ….......…................................................................ 12
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Enrollment Summary
NESDEC is pleased to send you this report displaying the past, present, and projected enrollments for your District. It is important to update
enrollment projections every year to identify changes in enrollment patterns. Ten-year projections are designed to provide your District with yearly,
up-to-date enrollment information that can be used by boards and administrators for effective planning and allocation of resources. We received the
enrollment data from the District, and we assume that the method of collecting this data has been consistent from year to year.
Birth data informs Kindergarten enrollment. Each year, NESDEC secures birth data from State sources, providing a snapshot in time as to actual and
provisional births as reported by the State, and then uses this birth data to predict Kindergarten enrollments. We only use annual birth data to assure
consistency in reporting from year to year. Estimated births, which are an average of the previous five years of birth data, are based on this same
snapshot. NESDEC acknowledges the variability of the provisional and the estimated birth data, and notes that the projected Kindergarten
enrollments may serve as a guide to future planning.
Enrollment projections are more reliable in Years #1-3 in the future. Projections four to ten years out may serve as a guide to future enrollments and
are useful for planning purposes. For more information, please refer to the Projection Methodology and Reliability section of this document.
The NESDEC enrollment projection fell within 41 students of the K-12 total, 2,000 students projected vs. 1,959 enrolled. A variance of 19 students
occurred at Kindergarten, 156 projected vs. 137 enrolled. Another variance of 16 students occurred at Grade 3, 183 projected vs. 167 enrolled.
Ratios have been adjusted. Note: Ungraded students are not included in K-12 total.
Births increased by 11 from a previous ten-year average of 140 to a projected average of 151. In most districts, Grades 1-8 are very stable in
enrollments. However, there have been increases in 5 of the 8 most recent years, leading to a net increase averaging 4 students per year.
Over the next three years, Grades K-2 enrollments are projected to increase by 32 students, Grades 3-5 enrollments are projected to decrease by
110 students, Grades 6-8 enrollments are projected to increase by 95 students, and Grades 9-12 enrollments are projected to decrease by 36
students, as students move through the grades.
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Historical Enrollment
School District: Colchester, CT 10/14/2025
Historical Enrollment By Grade
Birth School
Births* PK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 UNGR K-12 PK-12
Year Year
2010 151 2015-16 92 147 170 160 163 165 203 212 197 190 201 220 207 226 0 2461 2553
2011 137 2016-17 99 138 141 171 170 162 166 189 215 201 189 198 221 212 0 2373 2472
2012 140 2017-18 92 155 144 152 174 171 170 166 194 213 207 186 197 231 0 2360 2452
2013 111 2018-19 97 127 160 149 151 161 171 168 164 190 197 213 175 198 0 2224 2321
2014 133 2019-20 104 158 128 165 142 155 161 175 171 173 208 194 198 190 0 2218 2322
2015 127 2020-21 81 142 144 131 159 142 145 166 169 169 172 199 179 195 0 2112 2193
2016 161 2021-22 97 199 156 147 136 155 145 151 162 165 175 171 177 180 0 2119 2216
2017 147 2022-23 106 174 190 161 150 138 156 158 159 162 174 163 165 179 0 2129 2235
2018 133 2023-24 98 149 175 184 169 150 143 152 158 160 147 172 135 152 0 2046 2144
2019 157 2024-25 94 135 148 179 184 174 151 147 144 160 148 133 156 133 17 2009 2103
2020 139 2025-26 97 137 135 145 167 184 175 156 151 146 147 140 133 143 < 10 ** 1968 2065
*Birth data provided by Public Health Vital Records Departments in each state. ** < 10 Not reported, to protect subgroups with fewer than 10 students.
Historical Enrollment in Grade Combinations Historical Percentage Changes
School School
Year PK-5 K-5 PK-2 K-2 3-5 6-8 K-8 7-8 6-12 9-12 Year K-12 Diff. %
2015-16 1100 1008 569 477 531 599 1607 387 1453 854 2015-16 2461
2016-17 1047 948 549 450 498 605 1553 416 1425 820 2016-17 2373 -88 -3.6%
2017-18 1058 966 543 451 515 573 1539 407 1394 821 2017-18 2360 -13 -0.5%
2018-19 1016 919 533 436 483 522 1441 354 1305 783 2018-19 2224 -136 -5.8%
2019-20 1013 909 555 451 458 519 1428 344 1309 790 2019-20 2218 -6 -0.3%
2020-21 944 863 498 417 446 504 1367 338 1249 745 2020-21 2112 -106 -4.8%
2021-22 1035 938 599 502 436 478 1416 327 1181 703 2021-22 2119 7 0.3%
2022-23 1075 969 631 525 444 479 1448 321 1160 681 2022-23 2129 10 0.5%
2023-24 1068 970 606 508 462 470 1440 318 1076 606 2023-24 2046 -83 -3.9%
2024-25 1065 971 556 462 509 451 1422 304 1021 570 2024-25 2009 -37 -1.8%
2025-26 1040 943 514 417 526 453 1396 297 1016 563 2025-26 1968 -41 -2.0%
Change -493 -20.0%
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Grades K-12 Historical Enrollment
3000
2461
2500 2373 2360
2224 2218
2112 2119 2129
2046 2009 1968
2000
Enrollment
1500
1000
500
0
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26
School Year
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Projected Enrollment
School District: Colchester, CT 10/14/2025
Enrollment Projections By Grade*
School
Birth Year Births* PK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 UNGR K-12 PK-12
Year
2020 139 0 2025-26 97 137 135 145 167 184 175 156 151 146 147 140 133 143 < 10 ** 1968 2065
2021 173 0 2026-27 97 171 137 134 144 169 187 179 157 152 139 139 129 125 < 10 ** 1971 2068
2022 138 (prov.) 2027-28 97 136 171 136 133 145 172 191 180 158 144 132 128 121 < 10 ** 1956 2053
2023 146 (prov.) 2028-29 97 144 136 169 135 134 147 175 192 181 150 136 121 120 < 10 ** 1949 2046
2024 159 (prov.) 2029-30 98 157 144 135 168 136 136 150 176 194 172 142 125 114 < 10 ** 1958 2056
2025 151 (est.) 2030-31 98 149 157 143 134 170 138 139 151 177 184 163 131 118 < 10 ** 1963 2061
2026 153 (est.) 2031-32 98 152 149 155 142 135 173 141 140 152 168 174 150 123 < 10 ** 1963 2061
2027 149 (est.) 2032-33 99 148 152 148 154 143 137 176 142 141 144 159 160 141 < 10 ** 1954 2053
2028 152 (est.) 2033-34 99 150 148 151 147 156 145 140 177 143 134 136 146 151 < 10 ** 1933 2032
2029 153 (est.) 2034-35 99 151 150 147 150 148 159 148 141 178 136 127 125 137 < 10 ** 1906 2005
2030 152 (est.) 2035-36 100 150 151 149 146 151 150 162 149 142 169 129 117 118 < 10 ** 1892 1992
Note: Ungraded students (UNGR) often are high school students whose anticipated years of graduation are unknown, or students with special needs - UNGR not included in Grade Combinations for 7-12, 9-12, etc.
Based on an estimate of births Based on children already born Based on students already enrolled
*Birth data provided by Public Health Vital Records Departments in each state. ** < 10 Not reported, to protect subgroups with fewer than 10 students.
Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations* Projected Percentage Changes
School School
PK-5 K-5 PK-2 K-2 3-5 6-8 K-8 7-8 6-12 9-12 K-12 Diff. %
Year Year
2025-26 1040 943 514 417 526 453 1396 297 1016 563 2025-26 1968
2026-27 1039 942 539 442 500 488 1430 309 1020 532 2026-27 1971 3 0.2%
2027-28 990 893 540 443 450 529 1422 338 1054 525 2027-28 1956 -15 -0.8%
2028-29 962 865 546 449 416 548 1413 373 1075 527 2028-29 1949 -7 -0.4%
2029-30 974 876 534 436 440 520 1396 370 1073 553 2029-30 1958 9 0.5%
2030-31 989 891 547 449 442 467 1358 328 1063 596 2030-31 1963 5 0.3%
2031-32 1004 906 554 456 450 433 1339 292 1048 615 2031-32 1963 0 0.0%
2032-33 981 882 547 448 434 459 1341 283 1063 604 2032-33 1954 -9 -0.5%
2033-34 996 897 548 449 448 460 1357 320 1027 567 2033-34 1933 -21 -1.1%
2034-35 1004 905 547 448 457 467 1372 319 992 525 2034-35 1906 -27 -1.4%
2035-36 997 897 550 450 447 453 1350 291 986 533 2035-36 1892 -14 -0.7%
Change -76 -3.9%
*Projections should be updated annually to reflect changes in in/out-migration of families, births, and similar factors.
©New England School Development Council ∙ 508-481-9444 ∙ www.nesdec.org
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Grades K-12 Projected Enrollment
3000
2500
1968 1971 1956 1949 1958 1963 1963 1954 1933
2000 1906 1892
Enrollment
1500
1000
500
0
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36
School Year
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Grades K-12 Historical & Projected Enrollment
Historical Projected
3000
2500
2000
Enrollment
1500
1000
500
0
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32
2032-33
2033-34
2034-35
2035-36
School Year
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Historical & Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations
Historical Projected
1800
1600
1400
1200
Enrollment
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32
2032-33
2033-34
2034-35
2035-36
School Year
K-5 6-8 9-12
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Enrollment
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2015-16 1008 599 854
2016-17 948 605 820
2017-18 966 573 821
2018-19 919 522 783
2019-20 909 519 790
2020-21 863 504 745
Historical
2021-22 938 478 703
2022-23 969 479 681
2023-24 970 470 606
K-5
8
2024-25 971 451 570
6-8
School Year
2025-26 943 453 563
9-12 2026-27 942 488 532
2027-28 893 529 525
2028-29 865 548 527
2029-30 876 520 553
2030-31 891 467 596
2031-32 906 433 615
Projected
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2032-33 882 459 604
2033-34 897 460 567
Historical & Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations
2034-35 905 467 525
2035-36 897 453 533
Birth to Kindergarten Relationship
Births K Enrollment
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
B 2010 B 2011 B 2012 B 2013 B 2014 B 2015 B 2016 B 2017 B 2018 B 2019 B 2020
K 2015-16 K 2016-17 K 2017-18 K 2018-19 K 2019-20 K 2020-21 K 2021-22 K 2022-23 K 2023-24 K 2024-25 K 2025-26
Birth Year/ School Year
B 2010 B 2011 B 2012 B 2013 B 2014 B 2015 B 2016 B 2017 B 2018 B 2019 B 2020
K 2015-16 K 2016-17 K 2017-18 K 2018-19 K 2019-20 K 2020-21 K 2021-22 K 2022-23 K 2023-24 K 2024-25 K 2025-26
Births 151 137 140 111 133 127 161 147 133 157 139
Kindergarten 147 138 155 127 158 142 199 174 149 135 137
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Additional Information
School 9-12 K-12 K-12 K-12 K-12 K-12
Year CTE Non-Public Choice-In Choice-Out Out District Homeschool
SPED
2021-22 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2022-23 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2023-24 88 n/a 37 25 13 22
2024-25 62 26 30 25 27 26
2025-26 46 n/a 13 47 < 10 ** 19
* Data provided by District.
"n/a" signifies that information was not provided by District.
** < 10 Not reported, to protect subgroups with fewer than 10 students.
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New England's PK-12 Enrollments Trends
Fall 2013 Fall 2019 Fall 2022 Fall 2023 % Change % Change % Change
State
PK - 12 PK - 12 PK - 12 PK - 12 2013 - 23 2019-23 2022-23
USA 50,044,522 50,796,445 49,618,464 49,516,361 -1.1% -2.5% -0.2%
CT 546,200 523,690 513,513 512,652 -6.1% -2.1% -0.2%
ME 183,995 180,291 173,853 172,545 -6.2% -4.3% -0.8%
MA 955,739 959,394 923,349 914,958 -4.3% -4.6% -0.9%
NH 186,310 177,351 168,909 166,594 -10.6% -6.1% -1.4%
RI 142,008 143,557 137,449 136,154 -4.1% -5.2% -0.9%
VT 88,690 86,759 83,654 82,455 -7.0% -5.0% -1.4%
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment in public elementary
and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2023, Table 203.20,
Report Generated Oct. 2024, NESDEC 5.28.25
Although most New England Districts are seeing a decline in the number of births, NESDEC's experience indicates
that the impact on enrollment varies from District to District. Almost half of New England Districts have been
growing in PK-12 enrollment, and a similar number are declining (often in rural areas), with the other Districts
remaining stable.
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Projection Methodology and Reliability
PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
Cohort component (survival) technique is a frequently used method of preparing enrollment projections. NESDEC uses this method, but modifies it in
order to move away from projections that are wholly computer- or formula-driven. Such modification permits the incorporation of important, current
district-specific demographic information into the generation of enrollment projections (such as in/out-migration of students, resident births, etc.).
Percentages are calculated from the historical enrollment data to determine a reliable percentage of increase or decrease in enrollment between any two
grades. For example, if 100 students enrolled in Grade 1 in 2024-25 increased to 104 students in Grade 2 in 2025-26, the percentage of survival would be
104%, or a ratio of 1.04. Ratios are calculated between each pair of grades or years in school over several recent years.
After study and analysis of the historical ratios, and based upon a reasonable set of assumptions regarding births, migration rates, retention rates, etc.,
ratios most indicative of future growth patterns are determined for each pair of grades. The ratios thus selected are applied to the present enrollment
statistics to project into future years. The ratios are the key factors in the reliability of the projections, assuming validity of the data at the starting point.
RELIABILITY OF ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Projections can serve as useful guides to school administrators for educational planning. Enrollment projections are more reliable in Years #1-3 in the
future and less reliable in the “out-years.” Projections four to ten years out may serve as a guide to future enrollments and are useful for planning
purposes, but they should be viewed as subject to change given the likelihood of potential shifts in underlying assumptions/trends, such as student
migration, births as they relate to Kindergarten enrollment, and other factors.
Projections that are based upon the children who already are in the district (the current K-12 population only) will be the most reliable. The second level
of reliability will be for those children already born into the community but not yet old enough to be in school. The least reliable category is the group for
which an estimate must be made to predict the number of births, thereby adding additional uncertainty. See these three multi-colored groupings on the
“Projected Enrollment" tab.
Annual updates allow for early identification of recent changes in historical trends. When the actual enrollment in a grade is significantly different (higher or
lower) from the projected number, it is important (yet difficult) to determine whether this is a one-year aberration or whether a new trend may have begun.
In light of this possibility, NESDEC urges all school districts to have updated enrollment projections developed by NESDEC each October. This
service is available at no cost to affiliated school districts.
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