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COLCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS
ENROLLMENT PROJECTED TO 2031
Peter M. Prowda, PhD
28 Old Mill Court
Simsbury, CT 06070
(860) 716-7971
peteprowda@yahoo.com
November 5, 2021
Table of Contents
Section Page
Introduction 1
Perspective 1
Current Enrollment 2
Projection Method 3
Total Enrollment 5
Colchester Elementary School Enrollment 6
Jack Jackter School Enrollment 7
William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment 8
Bacon Academy Enrollment 9
Factors Affecting the Projection 10
Context of the Projection 13
Prior Projections of Enrollment 17
Summary 18
Appendices 19
List of Tables
1. 2021 Enrollment 2
2. Total Enrollment 5
3. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment 6
4. Jack Jackter School Enrollment 7
5. William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment 8
6. Bacon Academy Enrollment 9
7. Analysis of Kindergarten Enrollment 11
ii
List of Figures Page
1. Colchester Enrollment 1970 to Date 2
2. Schools Attended by Town Residents, 2021 2
3. Resident and Open Choice Enrollment by Grade, 2021 3
4. Total Enrollment 5
5. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment 6
6. Jack Jackter School Enrollment 7
7. William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment 8
8. Bacon Academy Enrollment 9
9. Births since 1980 10
10. Kindergarten Yield from Birth Cohort 10
11. Grade to Grade Growth Rates 11
12. Town Population Growth 2010 to 2020 13
13. Projected Colchester Population Ages 0-19 13
14. Colchester Women of Child-Bearing Age 14
15. Recent Changes in the Labor Force 14
16. Net New Housing Units 14
17. Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes and Condominiums 15
18. Annual High School Dropout Rate 15
19. Non-Public School Enrollment 15
20. Residents Enrolled in Other Public Schools 16
21. Tuition Students attending Bacon Academy 16
23. Estimated Student Migration 16
24. Prior Projections of Enrollment 17
List of Appendices
A. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2031: Primary and Intermediate Grades 19
B. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2031: Middle and High School Grades 20
iii
Introduction
This report presents a ten-year projection of enrollment for the Colchester Public Schools. It is based on
students enrolled in Colchester schools, a PK-2, 3-5, 6-8 and 9-12 grade alignment. The report includes
52 years of enrollment to place the projection into a wider historical perspective. One of the primary
drivers of future enrollment is births to residents. The report examines births and their relationship to
kindergarten enrollment. Several factors that influence school enrollment - town population, women of
child-bearing age, employment, housing, high school dropouts, non-public enrollment, resident
enrollment in other public schools, non-resident enrollment in Colchester schools and migration - are
presented. Finally, the accuracy of earlier projections is examined.
Enrollment projections are a valuable planning tool. For budgeting, the numbers can place requested
expenditures into a per pupil context. This can inform the public about which expenditures represent
continuing expenditures to support on-going programs and expenditures for school improvement and
program expansion. They are an essential step in determining the staffing that will be needed in the
future. This may facilitate the transfer of teachers from one grade to another or allow the hiring process to
start earlier, which can increase the likelihood of attracting the best teachers in the marketplace.
Projections are a critical and required step in planning for school facilities. The State of Connecticut
requires eight-year school-based projections as a critical component of determining the size of the project
for which reimbursement is eligible. This report is appropriate for that purpose for all of your schools. In
some communities the projection can determine the number of places they can make available to urban
students as part of a regional desegregation effort.
This projection was run during the Covid-19 pandemic which has had an impact mostly on elementary
enrollment. In projections I have run, I have observed a continued decline in non-public school
enrollment, a decline in births in 2020, an increase in births in 2021, a slight decrease in magnet school
enrollment, and more families deciding to home-school their children. Each town is a little different. The
trick is to observe the data and make a judgement which patterns are transient and adjust the projection
accordingly. A key assumption behind the method used in this report is that enrollment patterns in the
near future will be reflected in the patterns of the recent past. I now believe that the pandemic will be
substantially behind us in the fall of 2022. I have made what I feel are the best possible adjustments to
this unique situation.
Perspective
Enrollment projections typically use the most recent five years of data. While the most recent past is
viewed as the best predictor of the near future, it is informative to look at a broader perspective. Figure 1
shows the enrollment in Colchester from 1970 to date.
Enrollment in the Colchester Public Schools grew from 1,828 students in 1970 to 1,906 students in 1975.
Between then and 1981, enrollment went on a brief decline that took it to 1,483 students. In those six
years, enrollment declined by 423 students or 22.2 percent. Between 1981 and 2006 enrollment increased
by 1,759 students. The 3,242 students enrolled in 2006 was the all-time peak and represented a huge 119
percent increase over the 1981 low. Enrollment then entered a second downward cycle. Between 2006
and 2021 enrollment declined by 1,057 students or 30.9 percent. The 2021 enrollment of 2,239 students
is similar to that of 1994.
Colchester's enrollment pattern is only roughly similar to that of the state's public schools. Between its
1971 peak and 1988, Connecticut public school enrollment declined by 31.5 percent. State enrollment hit
a secondary peak in 2004. It grew 24.5 percent between the 1988 low and 2004. State enrollment
declined by a projected 11.6 percent between 2004 and 2021. The 1970 to 1975 growth in Colchester was
steeper that the state's. The subsequent enrollment decline in Colchester was much shorter in length than
the state's and less deep. Colchester’s 1981 to 2006 growth period was much longer than the state’s and
1
very much greater in magnitude. Colchester's second cycle of decline has been shorter than the state's but
more severe. Had Colchester followed the state pattern of enrollment, it would have had only 1,387
students enrolled in October of 2021 instead of your enrollment of 2,239.
Figure 1. Colchester Enrollment 1970 to Date
3500 3242
3000
2500 2,239
Enrollment
1906
2000 1828
1483
1500
1000
500
0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
October of Year
Colchester State Pattern
Current Enrollment
Table 1 and Figure 2 provide a picture of where Colchester residents attended school on October 1, 2021.
The data, provided by the Colchester Central Office, should be considered preliminary. The non-public
data were projected. They show that 90.3 percent of Colchester's school-age residents attended the
Colchester Public Schools in October of 2021. A projected 62 school-age residents (2.5 percent) attended
non-public schools in state. The number attending private schools out-of-state is not known. This figure
includes five students paid by the district to attend a non-public special education program.
Table 1. 2021 Enrollment Figure 2. Schools Attended by
Number Percent Town Residents, 2021
Residents
Magnet
A. Colchester Public 2,208 90.3% 2.0%
Tech+Ag
B. Magnet 48 2.0% Sci
2.7%
C. Tech.+ Ag. Sci. 65 2.7%
Town Other
D. Other Public 14 0.6% Public Public
E. Non-Public 62 2.5% 90.3% 0.6%
Non-
F. Home-Schooled 49 2.0% Public
Total (A+B+C+D+E) 2,446 2.5%
Home-
G. Non-Residents 31 Schooled
2.0%
Total Enrollment (A+G) 2,239
2
Forty-eight school-age residents attended charter or magnet schools (2.0 percent). Sixty-five students (2.7
percent) attended a state technical high school or an agriculture science program. Fourteen students (0.6
percent) attended another public school, most in a special education program run by a Regional Service
Center. There were 31 non-residents who attended Bacon Academy on a tuition basis in 2021. The
projections in this report are based upon the 2,239 residents and non-residents who attend the Colchester
Public Schools on October 1, 2021 (See “Total Enrollment” on the prior page).
Figure 3 shows the October 1, 2021 enrollment by grade of Colchester and Norwich students in the
Colchester Public Schools. The children in pre-kindergarten programs are not shown. Kindergarten had
the largest enrollment with 201 students. Grades 11 and 12 more than 170 Colchester residents enrolled.
Grade 3 was the smallest class with only 138 students. Grades 2 and 5 were the only others to have less
than 150 residents enrolled. If current conditions continue, this year's very large kindergarten class could
have 216 students when it enters grade 3 at the Jack Jackter School in 2024, 218 students when it enters
grade 6 at the William J. Johnson Middle School in 2027 and 213 resident students when it enters grade 9
at Bacon Academy in 2029. All projected enrollments are above the current enrollment in those grades.
The current year enrollment by grade is the starting point for this projection. How it moves forward is
discussed below.
Figure 3. Enrollment By Grade, 2021
250
201
200
163 170
158 155
148 148 154 174 171
150 168
Enrollment
138 161
100
50
0
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
Colchester Norwich
Projection Method
The projections in this report were generated primarily using the cohort survival method. This is the
standard method used by people running enrollment projections. For the grades above kindergarten, I
compute grade-to-grade growth rates for ten years (see Appendices A and B). For example, if the number
of fourth graders this year is 143 and the number of third graders last year was 140, then the growth rate is
1.021. Growth rates above 1.000 indicate that students moved in; transferred from non-public schools,
other public schools, or home-schooling; or were retained. Growth rates below 1.000 mean that students
moved out, transferred to private or other public schools, left to be home-schooled, dropped out, or were
not promoted from the prior grade. I adjusted the 2021 growth rates downward by including students
home-schooled in 2020 and 2021. For each grade I calculated five different averages of the year-to-year
growth rates: a three-year average; a weighted three-year average; a four-year average from 2017 to 2019
3
and 2021; a five-year average and a weighted five-year average. I choose the average that seems to best
fit the data. The average growth rate for a grade is applied to the prior year’s enrollment from the prior
grade. The projection builds grade by grade and year by year.
The growth rates used in the projection in grades 1-8 were based on four-year averages of the observed
grade-to-grade growth from 2017 to 2019 and adjusted 2021. This eliminated the negative impact of
Covid-19 on enrollment in 2020.
In grades 9-12 I felt comfortable using five-year averages because Covid-19 had a lesser impact on older
students. There were 31 dropouts reported in 2021. At least 19 were in grade 12. In the past five years
the average was four. I made proportional adjustments to the 2021 grade-to-grade transition rates in
grades 11 and 12 based on a proportional allocation of the difference between dropouts in 2021 and the
previous five-year average. In grade 9, I adjusted the annual growth rates in 2015 to 2021 to reflect
residents only. I then assumed 9 students (the average over the past five years) from Norwich would
enroll in grade 9 in 2022 and annually thereafter. I projected enrollment using five-year averages of the
grade-to-grade growth rates in grades 10-12 separately for Colchester and Norwich residents and then
combined the results.
I broke kindergarten into five-year-olds, six-year-olds entering kindergarten for the first time and
repeaters. For the projections in 2022-2024, I used the four-year averages (2017-2019, 2021) of each
component. In the 2025-31 years of the projection, I used the slightly more conservative eight-year
medians of the components because I felt it would be unlikely that Colchester could maintain the high
rate of growth from birth to kindergarten. I projected pre-kindergarten enrollment from the four-year
average (2016-2019, 2021) of the ratio of prekindergarten enrollment one year with the average of births
three- and four-years ago.
The number of children home-schooled jumped from 15 in 2019 to 49 in 2021 and then retreated to 25 in
2021. I assumed that increase was due to parents’ concerns about Covid-19. I assumed that the impact of
Covid-19 would be substantially behind us by October, 2022. Accordingly, I assumed that 50 percent of
the students home-schooled in 2021 would return to the Colchester Public Schools in 2022. That
approach would return the number home-schooled to about 15 students in 2023.
To extend the projections beyond four years, I needed to estimate births for the years 2022 to 2026. The
Connecticut State Department of Public Health recorded 135 births to Colchester residents in 2018 and
provisional counts of 159 in 2019 and 138 in 2020. These rarely change. I estimated there would be 188
births in 2021 from the number of in-state births through September of 2021, expected number of in-state
births from October to December based on the ratio of October to December births versus January to
September births over the past five years and the average out-of-state births in 2018, 2019 and 2020. I
used the Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projections of women of child-bearing ages in 2020, 2025
and 2030 along with my estimate of the 2019 fertility rate for Colchester to estimate births in 2020, 2025
and 2030. I calculated annual growth rates for 2020 to 2025 and 2025 to 2030 and applied them to the
moving three-year averages of births starting in 2019 to estimate births through 2026.
Enrollment data from 2011 to 2020 were taken from files provided by the Connecticut State Department of
Education. Note that current district-level data on the Department's website may include special education
students educated outside of the district and exclude students in a Detention Center. These are recent changes
to the way the Department reports enrollment data. Projections require consistency. The data I have chosen
for this analysis exclude special education students educated outside of the district and may include students
in a Detention Center. Enrollment data can change daily until an audited final file is closed. This process can
take up to two years. Thus, it is possible that the enrollment data in this report could differ slightly from data
in earlier reports and that may have been reported by your Board of Education to the public. The Colchester
central office provided enrollments in 2021. Births from 1980 to 2021 were provided by the Healthcare
Quality, Statistics, Analysis and Reporting Unit of the State Department of Public Health.
4
Total Enrollment
Table 2 and Figure 4 present the observed total enrollment in Table 2. Total Enrollment
Colchester schools from 2011 to 2021 and projected enrollment
through 2031. Detailed grade-by-grade data may be found in Percent
Appendices A and B. Total enrollment in Colchester fell from 3,017 Year Students Change
students in 2011 to 2,185 students in in 2020 and then rebounded to 2011 3,017
2,239 students in 2021. Enrollment plummeted by 778 students or 2012 2,880 -4.5%
25.8 percent between 2011 and 2021. I project that public-school 2013 2,733 -5.1%
enrollment statewide will have declined 7.4 percent in that period. 2014 2,638 -3.5%
2015 2,551 -3.3%
2016 2,426 -4.9%
Between 2010 and 2020, the latest data available, the enrollment loss
2017 2,438 0.5%
of 29.0 percent in Colchester was in the second largest among similar 2018 2,311 -5.2%
(DRG D) towns in the area. Only the 31.8 percent loss in Old 2019 2,312 0.0%
Saybrook was greater. Rocky Hill gained 2.2 percent. The losses in 2020 2,185 -5.5%
Cromwell (-2.1 percent), Wethersfield (-6.7 percent), East Hampton 2021 2,239 2.5%
(-7.6 percent), Newington (-10.7 percent), Berlin (-13.8 percent), East 2022 2,233 -0.3%
Lyme (-14.8 percent), and Clinton (-23.3) were all smaller than 2023 2,211 -1.0%
Colchester’s loss. 2024 2,243 1.4%
2025 2,253 0.4%
I project that the enrollment decline will continue through 2023 and 2026 2,294 1.8%
then recover. Next year, I anticipate that total enrollment will 2027 2,342 2.1%
2028 2,389 2.0%
decrease by 5-10 students. I anticipate that the enrollment low will 2029 2,450 2.6%
come in 2023 at about 2,210 students. By the year 2031, enrollment 2030 2,497 1.9%
could approach 2,560 students. That would be an increase of about 2031 2,557 2.4%
320 students (14.2 percent) from the October 2021 count and return
enrollment to the count in 2015. In the state's public schools, I am projecting an 8.7 percent decline
between 2021 and 2031. Total enrollment in Colchester could average close to 2,350 students over the
ten-year projection period compared to an average total enrollment of 2,471 students over the past ten
years.
Figure 4. Total Enrollment
3,500
3,017
3,000
2,557
2,500 2,239 2,233 2,211
2,000
Enrollment
1,500
1,000
500
0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
October of Year
Actual Projected
5
Colchester Elementary School Enrollment
Table 3 and Figure 5 present actual enrollment at the Colchester Table 3. Colchester
Elementary School in 2011 to 2021 and projected enrollment to 2031. Elementary School
Enrollment by grade may be found in Appendix A. Enrollment in Enrollment
grades PK-2 declined from 680 students in 2011 to 503 students in
2016 and then rebounded to 555 students in 2019. In 2020 it plunged Percent
Year Students Change
to 498 and then rebounded strongly to 606 students in 2021. There 2011 680
were losses of ten percent or more in 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2020. 2012 612 -10.0%
There was a 21.7 growth in 2021 enrollment. The 10-year loss of 74 2013 551 -10.0%
students represented 10.9 percent of the enrollment in 2011. I project 2014 542 -1.6%
that public-school enrollment statewide in grades K-2 will have 2015 570 5.2%
declined 11.3 percent in that period. 2016 503 -11.8%
2017 543 8.0%
It appears that the decline in early elementary enrollment in Colchester 2018 533 -1.8%
is over. I project next year’s enrollment in grades PK-2 could increase 2019 555 4.1%
2020 498 -10.3%
by almost 40 students, a 6.4 percent increase over this year. By 2031,
2021 606 21.7%
PK-2 enrollment at the Colchester Elementary School could be close 2022 645 6.4%
to 710 students. This would be similar to the number enrolled in 2010. 2023 661 2.5%
This would be about 105 students more than 2021, a gain of between 2024 653 -1.2%
17 and 18 percent. In grades K-2 in the state's public schools, I am 2025 643 -1.5%
projecting a 6.0 percent enrollment decline. Over the ten-year 2026 676 5.1%
projection period, I believe enrollment in grades PK-2 could average 2027 681 0.7%
about 680 students compared to the average of 551 students observed 2028 711 4.4%
over the past ten years. 2029 701 -1.4%
2030 705 0.6%
2031 712 1.0%
These figures include the children in your pre-kindergarten program.
Program enrollment ranged from 53 children in 2016 to 104 children in 2019. There were 99 children
enrolled in 2021. My projection model, based on births three- and four-years ago, projects pre-kindergarten
enrollment could range from 96 to 113 students over the next ten years.
Figure 5. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment
800
712
680
645
606
PK-2 Enrollment
600 555
503 498
400
200
0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
October of Year
Actual Projected
6
Jack Jackter School Enrollment
Table 4 and Figure 6 present actual enrollment at the Jack Jackter Table 4. Jack Jackter
School from 2011 to 2021 and projected enrollment to 2031. School Enrollment
Enrollment by grade may be found in Appendix A. Enrollment at the
school fell irregularly from 654 students in 2011 to 441 students in Year Students Change
2021. There were declines of greater than five percent in 2015, 2016, 2011 654
2012 630 -3.7%
2018 and 2019. Between 2011 and 2021 enrollment declined by 213
2013 614 -2.5%
students or 32.6 percent. I project that enrollment in grades 3-5 will 2014 585 -4.7%
have declined 9.7 percent in that period in the state's public schools. 2015 531 -9.2%
2016 498 -6.2%
I believe that future enrollment in grades 3-5 at the Jack Jackter 2017 513 3.0%
School is close to the bottom. Next year’s projected enrollment of 2018 482 -6.0%
440 students could be the low. I expect enrollment could once again 2019 456 -5.4%
exceed 500 students in 2024 and exceed 600 students in 2031. That 2020 445 -2.4%
figure is based in part on an increase in future births. The projected 2021 441 -0.9%
2031 enrollment of 611 students would be similar to the count in 2022 440 -0.2%
2023 444 0.9%
2013. Over the ten-years from 2021 to 2031, I project a net increase
2024 522 17.6%
of about 170 students or between 38 and 39 percent. Over the ten- 2025 562 7.7%
year projection period, I believe enrollment in grades 3-5 could 2026 575 2.3%
average about 540 students compared to the average of 520 students 2027 560 -2.6%
observed over the past ten years. In the state's public schools, I 2028 540 -3.6%
project that enrollment in grades 3-5 will decline by 11.6 percent 2029 583 8.0%
between 2021 and 2031. 2030 583 0.0%
2031 611 4.8%
Figure 6. Jack Jackter School Enrollment
700 654
611
600
500 441 440
3-5 Enrollment
400
300
200
100
0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
October of Year
Actual Projected
7
William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment
Table 5 and Figure 7 present actual enrollment in grades 6-8 in 2011 Table 5. William J. Johnson
to 2021 and projected enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle Middle School Enrollment
School to 2031. Enrollment by grade may be found in Appendix B. Grades
The school’s enrollment fell from 700 students in 2011 to 487 in Year 6-8 Change
2021. That was a loss of 213 students or 30.4 percent. The last time 2011 700
enrollment in these grades was near that level was 1993. There were 2012 701 0.1%
losses of more than five percent in 2014, 2017 and 2018. I project 2013 668 -4.7%
2014 625 -6.4%
that public-school enrollment in Connecticut will have fallen 6.3 2015 600 -4.0%
percent in those grades in those 10 years. 2016 605 0.8%
2017 571 -5.6%
I expect that enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle School will 2018 520 -8.9%
drift irregularly downward for the next four years and then recover. 2019 517 -0.6%
All the students who will attend these grades over the next ten years 2020 501 -3.1%
school have already been born. Next year I anticipate that enrollment 2021 487 -2.8%
in grades 6-8 will decline by 15-20 students. I expect the enrollment 2022 470 -3.5%
low will come somewhere between 2024 and 2026 at about 450 2023 466 -0.9%
2024 450 -3.4%
students. Pushed, in part, by a huge increase in 2027, I believe
2025 449 -0.2%
enrollment could be close to 550 students at the projection’s end. 2026 453 0.9%
Over the ten-years, I project a 13-14 percent-gain. Over the ten-year 2027 532 17.4%
projection period, I believe enrollment in grades 6-8 at the Middle 2028 574 7.9%
School could average about 510 students compared to the average of 2029 589 2.6%
580 students in grades 6-8 observed over the past ten years. In the 2030 573 -2.7%
state's public schools, I project that enrollment in grades 6-8 will 2031 553 -3.5%
decline by 11.0 percent in the next ten years.
Figure 7. William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment
800
700
589
600 553
487
6-8 Enrollment
470 449
400
200
0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
October of Year
Actual Projected
8
Bacon Academy Enrollment
Grade 9 is the first opportunity to attend state technical high schools Table 6. Bacon Academy
and agriculture science and technology centers. Preliminary October Enrollment
2021 data show that 84.3 percent of Colchester residents enrolled in
Percent
grade 9 were enrolled in the district. I project seven students (3.7 Year Students Change
percent) will have enrolled in non-public schools in state. Seventeen 2011 983
9th graders (8.5 percent) were enrolled in a technical high school or an 2012 937 -4.7%
agriculture science program. There were four 9th grade students (2.0 2013 900 -3.9%
percent) enrolled in an area magnet school and two (1.0 percent) in 2014 886 -1.6%
another public school. There was also one student home-schooled 2015 850 -4.1%
(0.5 percent). 2016 820 -3.5%
2017 811 -1.1%
2018 776 -4.3%
Table 6 and Figure 8 present enrollment at the Bacon Academy.
2019 784 1.0%
Grade-by-grade enrollment may be found in Appendix B. Enrollment 2020 741 -5.5%
fell from 983 students in 2011 to 705 students in 2021. This decline 2021 705 -4.9%
came after a 25-year period of enrollment growth that ended in 2009. 2022 678 -3.8%
Between 2011 and 2021, grade 9-12 enrollment decreased by 278 2023 640 -5.6%
students or 28.3 percent. I project that statewide public-school 2024 618 -3.4%
enrollment in grades 9-12 will have fallen 5.9 percent in that ten-year 2025 599 -3.1%
period. 2026 590 -1.5%
2027 569 -3.6%
I expect that next year's enrollment at Bacon Academy will be 25 2028 564 -0.9%
2029 577 2.3%
students less than this year. I expect enrollment will fall below 600
2030 636 10.2%
students in 2025. I anticipate an enrollment low of about 565 students 2031 681 7.1%
in 2028 before a rebound to about 680 students at the projection’s
end. The 2031 count would be about 25 students, between three and four percent, below the October 2021
count. Statewide, I have projected an 8.7 percent decline in public school grade 9-12 enrollment between
2021 and 2031. I believe enrollment at the high school could average 615 students over the next ten years
compared to the average of 821 students observed over the past ten years.
Figure 8. Bacon Academy Enrollment
1200
983
1000
800 705
Enrollment
673 676
600 558
400
200
0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
October of Year
Actual Projected
9
Factors Affecting the Projection
The primary reasons for elementary enrollment change lie in the births, the yield from the birth cohort and
grade-to-grade migration. Figure 9 presents the actual and provisional births from 1980 to 2019¸ and
estimated births from 2020 to 2026. Births ranged from a high of 245 in 1990 to a low of 111 in 2013. There
were 135 births recorded in 2018. That is the latest official count. The provisional counts are 159 births in
2019 and 138 births in 2020. From in-state births through June, I estimate there will be 167 births in calendar
year 2021. From 2000 to 2009, there was an average of 186 births annually. In the five years from 2012 to
2016, this fall’s kindergarten through 4th graders, births averaged 134. Births in the 2017 through 2021 period
will average close to 149. The projection in years 2026 to 2031 assumes an average of 159 births annually
between 2022 and 2026. This was based on the Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projection of
Colchester women of child-bearing ages and my estimate of 2019 fertility in Colchester.
Figure 9. Births Since 1980
245
250
200
Number of Births
159
150 Actual
111 Projected
100
50
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Calendar Year
Figure 10 depicts the kindergarten yield
five and six years after the birth year from Figure 10. Kindergarten Yield From Birth
2006 to 2016 for Colchester residents Cohort
attending kindergarten in the Colchester
114% 116%116%116%118%
Public Schools. The dark blue indicates 120%
106%
102% 104%
the birth cohorts affected by full-day 99%
100% 94% 91%
kindergarten, which started in 2013.
There were 127 births in 2015 and 122
80%
children enrolled in Colchester
kindergarten at age five in 2020 and an
Yield
60%
additional 25 who first enrolled in
kindergarten at age six in 2021. That was 40%
a yield of 116 percent. The yield from
the birth cohort ranged from a low 91 20%
percent in 2011 to a high of 116 percent
0%
in 2013, 2014 and 2015. The estimated 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
yield in 2016 was 118 percent. That yield
Birth Year
is an estimate because we will not know
10
the number of students that will first enter as six-year-olds until October, 2022. Yields above 100 percent
generally mean that parents who give birth elsewhere move into town before their child enters
kindergarten. In the four-year look-back period of the projection, the yield was 114 percent; the median
since full-day kindergarten started was 111 percent.
Table 7 gives a history of enrollment in kindergarten since 2011 and relates the components of kindergarten
enrollment back to the appropriate birth cohort. Retention is tied to the prior year's kindergarten enrollment.
I estimated kindergarten enrollment in 2022 to 2024 using the average from 2017-2019 and 2021 growth of
retentions, and yields from births five and six years ago. In those years I estimated kindergarten from 101.5
percent of births five years ago, 13.3 percent of births six years ago, and 4.1 percent of current kindergarten
students retained. I felt that was aggressive growth to maintain for 10 years, so for the projection years 2025
to 2031, I used the median of the components for the eight years full-day kindergarten has been in effect. In
those years I estimated kindergarten from 95.9 percent of births five years ago, 12.0 percent of births six years
ago, and 3.3 percent of current kindergarten students retained.
Table 7. Analysis of Kindergarten Enrollment
Yield Yield Total
Retained - - - - Non-Retained - - - - From From Yield
From Born 5-Years Prior Born Births Births From
Birth Prior Colchester Non- 6 Years Percent 5-Years 6-Years Birth
Year Year Births K Year Resident Resident Prior Retained Prior Prior Cohort
2011 2006 169 180 6 155 0 19 3.0% 91.7% 10.0% 101.8%
2012 2007 147 170 5 148 0 17 2.8% 100.7% 10.1% 113.6%
2013 2008 144 158 6 133 0 19 3.5% 92.4% 12.9% 104.2%
2014 2009 164 162 2 143 0 17 1.3% 87.2% 11.8% 99.4%
2015 2010 151 147 1 125 0 20 0.6% 82.8% 12.2% 94.0%
2016 2011 139 138 8 113 0 17 5.4% 81.3% 11.3% 91.4%
2017 2012 140 155 7 134 0 14 5.1% 95.7% 10.1% 106.4%
2018 2013 111 127 2 114 0 15 1.3% 102.7% 10.7% 116.2%
2019 2014 133 158 6 137 0 15 4.7% 103.0% 13.5% 115.8%
2020 2015 127 142 3 122 0 17 1.9% 96.1% 12.8% 115.7%
2021 2016 161 201 8 168 0 25 5.6% 104.3% 19.7% 117.7%
3-Year Average 4.0% 101.4% 15.4% 116.4%
Weighted 3-Year Average 4.2% 101.4% 16.4% 116.7%
5-Year Average 3.6% 100.4% 13.2% 114.4%
Weighted 5-Yr Average 3.8% 101.1% 14.8% 115.8%
2016-2019, 2021 4.1% 101.5% 13.3% 114.0%
8-Year Median 3.3% 95.9% 12.0% 111.1%
The correlation between births and kindergarten enrollment five-year later was a high 0.93 over the 2000
to 2021 period. If this relationship were used to predict kindergarten enrollment, the estimate would have
been off by an average of 10 children annually over the past ten years. The cohort survival method, even
with my breakout into five-year olds, six-year old delayed entrants and children retained, cannot
overcome the underlying unpredictability of kindergarten enrollment from earlier births.
In the four-year look-back period of the kindergarten projection, births ranged from 111 to 161. Future
kindergarten classes will be based on 135-188 births. That is somewhat above the range in the look-back
period. We have to trust that the growth rate from birth to kindergarten will not change when births
increase. If it does, future kindergarten enrollment could be over-estimated.
The “Connecticut Early Childhood Report on Changing the Kindergarten Date,” mandated by Public Act
14-39, recommended that the start date for kindergarten be moved back to October 1st phased in one
11
month increments over the course of three years. It further recommended the elimination of the section of
C.G.S Sec. 10-184 which allows parents the option of not enrolling their age-eligible child. Funds for the
implementation have not yet been made available by the General Assembly. Unless the state’s fiscal
situation changes for the better or a court intervenes, I do not believe this common-sense change will be
implemented. Once implemented, the changes will very slightly decrease the size of your kindergarten
class for three years and increase your pre-kindergarten enrollment. This change is not built into this
projection, but will be built into future projections once the implementation date is set.
Figure 11 gives a perspective of the grade-to-grade growth rates for resident students attending the
Colchester schools. An "x" indicates the average growth rate used in the projection. The diamond is the
growth observed between last year and this year. The upper line indicates the largest growth rate
observed over the past ten years and the lower line, the lowest. For example, in grade 2 the projection
used a growth multiplier of 1.034 over the prior year’s 1st grade enrollment. Over the past ten years, the
rate ranged from a low of 0.976 to a high of 1.078. In general, the narrower the gap between the two lines
is, the greater the accuracy of the projection. The K-8 growth rates used in the projection were based on
the averages of the observed grade-to-grade growth from 2017-2019 and 2021 (adjusted for students
home-schooled); the high school growth rates were based on five-year averages with 2020 and 2021
adjusted for students home-schooled and the grade 11 and 12 averages in 2021 adjusted for the
unprecedented increase in dropouts observed that year.
Most model growth rates were in the middle to the upper end of the ten-year range. Grades 10-12 were
the exceptions. Most model growth rates were close to the 2021 rates. The 2021 rates were well above
the projection growth rates in grades 1 and 6 and well below in grades 2 and 12. The 2021 rates set ten-
year highs in grades 1 and 6. Six of the eight elementary growth rates are above 1.000, indicating that
more families with children are moving into Colchester than leaving. The low rate in grade 9 reflects
other opportunities such as technical high schools and agriculture science programs. The model growth
rates in grades 2-12 averaged 0.987. The comparable rate for 2021 was 0.993. The 20-year median of
those annual grade-to-grade rates was also 0.993
Figure 11. Grade to Grade Growth Rates
1.15
1.10
2021
1.05
High
Rate
1.00
Low
0.95
Projection
0.90
0.85
0.80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade Moving Into
12
Context of the Projection
The cohort-survival method typically needs only births and a few years of recent enrollment data to
generate a projection. Mathematically, nothing else matters. But enrollment changes do not occur in a
vacuum. Events and policies in the district, community and region all have some bearing on enrollment.
Remember that a basic assumption of the cohort-survival method is that the recent past can be a good
predictor of the near future. It is incumbent for every receiver of a projection to determine what events
happened in the past few years and whether they are likely to change.
To assist in this endeavor, this report examines several factors that could affect enrollment: town
population; women of child-bearing age; the labor force; new home construction; sales of existing homes;
high school dropout rate; non-public enrollment; non-resident enrollment in Colchester schools; resident
enrollment in other public schools and student migration.
Figure 12 presents the US Census Bureau’s
census growth for Colchester between 2010 Figure 12. Population Growth, 2010 to
and 2020. In that period, the population 2020
1.5%
declined by 513 people. Colchester’s 0.89%
1.0% 0.69%
population loss of 3.19 percent ranked it
119th in the state. In contrast, New London Estimated Growth 0.5%
County fell by 2.01 percent, the state grew 0.0%
by 0.89percent and communities with -0.5% Colchester State New DRG D
similar economic and need characteristics London
-1.0% Cnty
(DRG D) grew by 0.69 percent. The actual
-1.5%
population decline was greater than the
inter-census estimates, which had -2.0%
Colchester’s population falling by 1.5 -2.5% -2.01%
percent. -3.0%
-3.5% -3.19%
Figure 13 presents the Connecticut State
Data Center’s 2017 population projections
for Colchester residents 0-19 years of age Figure 13. Projected Colchester
in the years 2020, 2025 and 2030. They Population Ages 0-19
projected that the population ages 0-4 1200
would increase 15.6 percent between 2020
Number of Children
1000
and 2030. They also projected the 2020
population ages 5-9 would fall from 824 in 800
2025
2020 to 790 (-4.1 percent) in 2030 and then 600 2030
rebound to 864 in 2030. They projected
that number of children ages 10-14 would 400
decline sharply from 1,011 in 2020 to 840 200
(-16.9 percent) in 2030. The number of
youth ages 15-19 was projected to decline 0
from 1,136 in 2020 to 804 in 2030 (-29.2 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19
percent). This independent projection Age Group
forecasts a steeper decline than the
projection in this report.
13
Figure 14 presents the Connecticut State
Data Center’s 2017 projections of the Figure 14. Colchester Women of Child-
number of women of child-bearing age in Bearing Age
700
Colchester from 2015 to 2025. The Center
600
Number of Women
projected a 3.6 percent decline in the
number of Colchester women ages 15-44 500
2015
between 2021 and 2025. However, in 400
communities like yours, 30-34-year-old 2020
300
women have the highest rate of births. The
200 2025
Center projected that the number of women
in that group would grow from 443 in 2021 100
to 464 (+9.2 percent) in 2025. The second 0
highest birth rate in communities like 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to
Colchester is women ages 25-29. The 19 24 29 34 39 44
Center projected that the number in that age Age Group
range would grow from 434 in 2021 to 464
(+6.9 percent) in 2021.
Figure 15 examines the number of people
in the labor market from the US Figure 15. Recent Changes in the Labor
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Force
Statistics. These are people 16 years of age
10000 9438 9264 94899221
or older who were working or actively were
seeking employment. The Colchester labor
8000
force decreased between 2011 and 2013
Number
and then rebounded through 2019. Covid- 6000
19 dropped the labor force to below the
2010 count in 2020. Between 2010 and 4000
2020, the net decrease was 2.3 percent. This
was worse than the state (-2.0 percent) but 2000
better than New London County (-8.2 0
percent). Colchester’s unemployment rate 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
jumped from 3.0 percent in 2019 to 6.2
percent in 2020. The 2020 rate was still Calendar Year
down 2.1 percentage points from the 2010
high. It is better than the state rate of 7.9
percent and the New London County rate of
9.6 percent. The July 2021 rate improved Figure 16. Net New Housing Units
to 5.2 percent.
40 35
Figure 16 presents the net new housing 35 31
permits issued from 2010 to 2020 from the 28
30 25
State Department of Economic and
25
Community Development. In the past ten
New Units
20 18 17 17
years the number of net (of demolitions) 14
new housing permits issued in Colchester 15 11 12
10
ranged from a low of 10 in 2014 to a high 10
of 35 in 2010. There were 17 permits 5
issued in 2020. In the 2017-2020 period for 0
this projection, there was an average of 12 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
net new housing permits issued.
Calendar Year
14
Figure 17 presents my estimate of the
number of sales of existing single-family Figure 17. Sales of Existing Single-
homes and condominiums. I derived it by Family Homes and Condominiums
250
taking the number of real estate transactions 214
204 199 193
from The Warren Group/Commercial 200 183 187
Record and subtracting the number of new 153
single-family housing units authorized the 150 121
Sales
prior year. The estimated number of sales 117
106
of existing homes ranged from a low of 80 100 80
in 2011 to a high of 214 in 2020. In the
2017-2020 period, there was an average of 50
198 sales annually. Sales through August,
2021 are above those of the prior year. 0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Figure 18 shows the annual percentage of Calendar Year
dropouts from grades 9-12 for the 2010-11
to 2020-21 school years. The data were
provided by the Connecticut State
Department of Education and the
Colchester central office. Dropouts are Figure 18. Annual High School Dropout
students who left school early, left to enroll Rate
in a GED program, transfer to post- 5.0%
secondary education prior to graduation or 4.2%
Percentage Drop-Outs
moved but not known to be continuing. 4.0%
The high school dropout rate exploded in
2021. That was due in part to students 3.0%
failure to maintain an on-line presence.
Between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, 2.0%
1.1%
31 students dropped out. In the 15 years
1.0% 0.6%0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
before that, the largest number was nine.
0.1%0.1%
Over the four years between 2016 and 0.0%
2019, the average rate was 0.4 percent. The 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
2021 rate was students who stopped
School Year Ending June 30
attending on-line instruction and had not
logged in by October 1, 2021.
Figure 19. Non-Public School
Figure 19 presents the non-public Enrollment
enrollment over the past ten years for 175 161
students from the town of Colchester. The 150
data are from the records of the Connecticut
125
State Department of Education. Non-public
Enrollment
enrollment declined from 161students in 100
2010 to only 65 students in 2020, the latest 75 65
data available. In the past ten years,
enrollment in the non-public schools 50
declined by 96 students or almost 60 25
percent. The 2020 non-public enrollment
0
represented 2.8 percent of all students from 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Colchester. Ten years ago, the figure was
October of School Year
4.8 percent. I project that non-public
enrollment from Colchester will be about
60 students in 2021.
15
Figure 20 presents the enrollment of
Colchester residents in other public schools Figure 20. Residents Enrolled in Other
in Connecticut from 2011 to 2021. The Public Schools
2021 data are preliminary. The number 200 190 198
170 166
educated out-of-district rose from 93 in 175 164
147
2011 to 198 in 2016 and then fell to 127 in 150 129 127
Residents
125 118
2021. The number enrolled in magnet or
100 93
charter schools rose from 30 students in
2011 to 118 in 2016 and then fell to 48 in 75
2021. In 2021, 48 students attended a 50
magnet or charter school, 14 attended the 25
agriculture science program at Lyman 0
Memorial High, 51 attended a State 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Technical High School, and 14 attended a October of Year
special education program run by a RESC Magnet Tech+Ag Other
or another public-school district.
Figure 21 presents the number of Norwich Figure 21. Tuition Students Attending
residents who attended Bacon Academy on Bacon Academy
a tuition basis. The option started with
35 31
eight students enrolled in 2016. The
30 28
number grew to 31 in 2021. These students 25 26
represented 4.4 percent of the Bacon 25
Enrollment
20
Academy enrollment in 2021. The 20
projection assumes nine Norwich residents
15
will enroll in Colchester grade 9 annually.
Over the next ten years, these tuition 10 8
students from Norwich are projected to 5 1 1 1
average 5.3 percent of Bacon Academy 0
0
enrollment. 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
October of Year
Figure 22 presents the estimated migration
of students from Colchester. The rate is
adjusted for Colchester residents attending
other public schools and non-residents in Figure 22. Estimated Student Migration
Colchester schools. In 2020 and 2021, the 2.0%
rate accounted for students home-schooled. 1.0%
The figures do not take into account 1.0% 0.4%
Estimated Migration
0.1% 0.0%0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
students attending non-public schools. 0.0%
Estimated migration ranged from a low of 0.0%
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
-3.3 percent in 2020 to a high of +1.0 -1.0% -0.3%
percent in 2016. The 2021 rate was zero.
The data behind these figures may be found -2.0%
-1.3% -1.8%
in Appendices A and B. In the 2017-2019
-3.0%
and 2021 look-back period of the
projection, there was an average migration -4.0% -3.3%
of -0.30 percent. The median over the past
25 years was +0.24 percent.
October of Year
16
Prior Projections of Enrollment
The cohort-survival projection method works by moving forward the pattern of recent events that are subsumed
within the grade-by-grade enrollment. This works very well when communities are stable. One way to know if
that assumption is valid is to examine how past projections have fared. Figure 24 presents the enrollment
projections that I have run for Colchester since 2017. Last year’s projection under-estimated 2021 enrollment
by 49 students or 2.2 percent. The three enrollment projections that I did between 2011 and 2019 had one-year
error rates that averaged 2.6 percent. The one projection done between 2011 and 2016 had a five-year error rate
of 5.9 percent, which is 1.2 percent annualized.
Last year’s projection is running 2.2 percent low. In that analysis, I projected that K-2 enrollment would be 571
students in 2021. The actual enrollment of 606 was 35 students more than projected. The projection was low
by 5.8 percent. I projected that enrollment in grades 3-5 would be 432 students in 2021. The actual enrollment
of 441 was nine students more than projected. The projection was low by 2.0 percent. I projected that this
year’s enrollment at William J. Johnson Middle School would be 485 students. The actual enrollment of 487
was two students more than projected. The projection was low by 0.4 percent. I projected that this fall’s high
school enrollment would be 702 students. The actual enrollment of 705 was three students more than projected.
The projection was low by 0.4 percent. The 2020 projection expected a pre-kindergarten enrollment of 95
children. There were 99 enrolled in 2021. The rebound from Covid-19 affected 2021 enrollment
disproportionately impacted younger students. This is similar to what I have observed so far this year in other
districts.
Figure 23. Prior Projections of Enrollment
3200
3000 Actual
Enrollment
2800 2017
2018
2600
2019
2400 2020
2021
2200
2000
1800
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
October of Year
Over the past forty years, I have found the cohort-survival method provides estimates that are sufficiently
accurate for intermediate-range policy planning. The eight-year planning horizon for school construction grants
is at the limit of the useful accuracy of the method. The method usually does not attempt to predict the future.
Its key assumption is that the near future will be like the recent past. For example, projections done in the late
2000s did not anticipate the recession of 2011. Some policy changes such as kindergarten retention, drop-out
prevention programs and the number of credits to be considered a 10th grader can be built into a new projection.
It is incumbent upon the receiver of a projection to identify planned changes so that they can be built into a
projection.
17
Summary
I project that total enrollment in 2031 could grow by more than 300 students, an increase of more than 14
percent over 2021. That would bring total enrollment to about 2,560 students. I project that Colchester
Elementary School enrollment could move upward from 606 students in 2021 to about 710 students in 2031.
This would be about a 105-student gain, a growth of over 17 percent. I expect the Jack Jackter School
enrollment could increase from 441 students in 2021 to about 610 students in 2031. I believe that future
enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle School could decline to about 450 students somewhere between
2024 and 2026 and be close to 555 students in 2031. That would be a 13-14 percent increase over 2021. The
peak enrollment at Bacon Academy was 1,003 students in 2009. Between 2021 and 2028, enrollment at the
Academy could fall from 705 students to about 565 students. By 2031, I anticipate it will be close to 680
students. That would represent a net loss of about 25 students, a decline of over three percent.
This report is projecting an increase in enrollment in grades K-8 and a slight decline in high school enrollments.
It is critical to remember that a projection is just a moving forward of recent trends. Is the forecast realistic? In
the five years from 2011 to 2015 (this fall’s kindergarten through 4th graders) births averaged 130. Births in the
2016 through 2021 period will average close to 147. My model assumes that births in 2021 to 2025 will average
146. I used a 7.5 percent growth between birth and eventual kindergarten enrollment. The median over the past
15 years was 4.2 percent. (That included years when full-day kindergarten was not offered.) The average of the
grade-to grade growth rates across grades 2-12 that I used to grow future enrollment was 0.989. That is about
the same as last year. These projection multipliers averaged a Covid-19 depressed 0.965 in 2021; the median
over the last 20 years was 0.995. Taking these three key factors into consideration, I believe the projection is
realistic.
These projections are based upon several other assumptions revolving around the notion that the recent past is a
good predictor of the near future. The projection assumes that the following school policies will continue:
kindergarten will remain full-day; 11 percent of parents will delay their child’s kindergarten entry until age 6;
nine Norwich children will enroll in grade 9 annually, retention policies will not change; no expansion of
enrollment in area magnets and no change in the dropout rate. The projection assumes a student migration of
-0.06 percent; a very slight decline in non-public school enrollment; 19 new housing units will be constructed
annually; an average of 190 sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums and a slight increase in the
labor force.
Obviously Covid-19 has introduced uncertainty into this projection. I assumed that the epidemic would be
substantially behind us by October of 2021. I assumed that the pattern of growth observed between 2016 and
2019 would return. I further assumed that the increase in students home-schooled would return over the next
two years. I further assumed that the job insecurity introduced by Covid-19 would depress births in 2021 and
2022. Those are a lot more assumptions than my typical projection. You also appear to have recently changed
the number of credits required to move from grade 9 to 10. This is not built into the high school’s projection. I
expect that grade 9 will be have slightly higher enrollment than projected and grade 10 slightly lower. A bit
more caution than usual must be exercised when using these projections to make policy decisions.
It is important to remember that the cohort survival method relies on observed data from the recent past. Its key
assumption is that those conditions will persist. It does not try to predict when the economic conditions might
change. We cannot know today how long these conditions will continue. This projection should be used as a
starting point for local planning. Examine the factors and assumptions underlying the method. You know your
community best. Apply your knowledge of the specific conditions in Colchester and then make adjustments as
necessary.
18
Appendix A. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2031: Primary and
Intermediate Grades
School Birth Total Total
Year Year Births1 K 1 2 3 4 5 PK PK-2 3-5
2011-11 2005 190 202 228 207 214 233 241 61 698 688
2011-12 2006 169 180 197 223 204 214 236 80 680 654
2012-13 2007 147 170 171 195 222 198 210 76 612 630
2013-14 2008 144 158 164 170 196 220 198 59 551 614
2014-15 2009 164 162 161 160 168 200 217 59 542 585
2015-16 2011 151 147 171 161 163 165 203 91 570 531
2016-17 2011 139 138 141 171 170 162 166 53 503 498
2017-18 2012 140 155 144 152 174 170 169 92 543 513
2018-19 2013 111 127 160 149 151 161 170 97 533 482
2019-20 2014 133 158 128 165 142 154 160 104 555 456
2021-21 2015 127 147 143 130 159 139 145 86 506 443
Projected
2021-222 2016 161 174 151 151 134 156 142 95 571 432
2022-232 2017 144 162 176 157 154 133 158 100 595 445
2023-24 2018 135 151 164 182 158 151 134 100 597 443
2024-25 2019 159 173 153 170 183 155 153 95 591 491
2025-26 2021 138 156 175 158 171 180 157 97 586 508
2026-27 2021 142 157 158 181 159 168 182 99 595 509
2027-28 2022 145 160 159 163 182 156 170 100 582 508
2028-29 2023 146 162 162 164 164 179 158 101 589 501
2029-30 2024 149 165 164 168 165 161 181 101 598 507
2031-31 2025 150 166 167 170 169 162 163 101 604 494
Projection Growth Rates3 1.011 1.034 1.006 0.983 1.011 0.661
Annual Resident Growth Rates
Migration4
2011 1.065 0.975 0.978 0.986 1.000 1.013 0.550 0.15%
2012 1.156 0.950 0.990 0.996 0.971 0.981 0.494 0.45%
2013 1.097 0.965 0.994 1.005 0.991 1.000 0.375 -0.30%
2014 0.988 1.019 0.976 0.988 1.020 0.986 0.407 0.00%
2015 0.974 1.056 1.000 1.019 0.982 1.015 0.652 0.26%
2016 0.993 0.959 1.000 1.056 0.994 1.006 0.422 0.96%
2017 1.107 1.043 1.078 1.018 1.000 1.043 0.754 0.27%
2018 1.144 1.032 1.035 0.993 0.925 1.000 0.746 -1.77%
2019 1.188 1.008 1.031 0.953 1.020 0.994 0.722 0.30%
2021 1.157 0.905 1.016 0.964 0.979 0.942 0.564 -3.19%
3-Year Ave. 1.163 0.982 1.027 0.970 0.975 0.978 0.677
Weighted 3-Year 1.165 0.961 1.024 0.965 0.984 0.969 0.647
5-Year Ave. 1.118 0.990 1.032 0.997 0.984 0.997 0.642
Weighted-5 year 1.145 0.980 1.031 0.980 0.983 0.985 0.659
2016-2019 1.105 1.011 1.034 1.006 0.983 1.011 0.661
1 2005-2019 births are from the State Department of Public Health. The 2018 and 2019 counts are provisional.
The 2021 births were based on in-state births through September. Births in 2021-2025 were based on
Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projection of Colchester women of child-bearing ages and my estimate of
2018 fertility rates in Colchester.
2 Enrollment in 2021 and 2022 assumes half of home-schooled students will return in 2021 and
half of those remaining will return in 2022.
3 Growth rates based on grade-to-grade rates between 2016 and 2019. Kindergarten based on four-year averages (2016-
2019) of estimated yield from births five- and six-years ago and retention.
4 Estimated by comparing the enrollment in grades 3-8 one year with the enrollment in grades 2-7 the prior year with an
adjustment for residents out and non-residents in.
19
Appendix B. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2031: Middle and High
School Grades
6-8 9-12 District
School Year 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total Total Total
2011-11 220 241 244 245 250 239 253 705 987 3,078
2011-12 234 224 242 228 247 249 259 700 983 3,017
2012-13 229 245 227 205 221 248 263 701 937 2,880
2013-14 197 230 241 205 208 224 263 668 900 2,733
2014-15 198 195 232 226 210 213 237 625 886 2,638
2015-16 213 198 189 202 219 204 225 600 850 2,551
2016-17 188 216 201 187 199 220 214 605 820 2,426
2017-18 165 193 213 203 185 197 226 571 811 2,438
2018-19 167 164 189 197 209 174 196 520 776 2,311
2019-20 174 170 173 207 194 196 187 517 784 2,312
2021-21 165 170 169 175 197 184 187 504 743 2,196
Projected
2021-223 144 168 173 165 169 184 184 485 702 2,190
2022-233 140 147 170 168 159 158 184 457 669 2,166
2023-24 155 142 148 173 161 149 157 445 640 2,125
2024-25 131 157 143 152 166 150 149 431 617 2,130
2025-26 150 133 158 147 146 154 149 441 596 2,131
2026-27 154 152 134 161 141 136 153 440 591 2,135
2027-28 178 156 153 138 154 131 135 487 558 2,135
2028-29 167 180 157 156 132 143 130 504 561 2,155
2029-30 155 169 181 160 149 123 142 505 574 2,184
2031-31 177 157 170 183 153 139 122 504 597 2,199
Projection
Growth Rates 0.980 1.014 1.006 0.963 0.955 0.927 0.995
Annual Estimated
Growth Rates1 Migration2
2011 0.971 1.018 1.004 0.934 1.008 0.996 1.084 0.15%
2012 0.970 1.047 1.013 0.847 0.969 1.004 1.056 0.45%
2013 0.938 1.004 0.984 0.903 1.015 1.014 1.060 -0.30%
2014 1.000 0.990 1.009 0.938 1.024 1.024 1.058 0.00%
2015 0.982 1.000 0.969 0.871 0.969 0.971 1.056 0.26%
2016 0.926 1.014 1.015 0.952 0.950 0.973 1.015 0.96%
2017 0.994 1.027 0.986 0.950 0.925 0.930 0.973 0.27%
2018 0.988 0.994 0.979 0.887 0.990 0.897 0.954 -1.77%
2019 1.024 1.018 1.055 1.063 0.954 0.909 1.040 0.30%
2021 1.031 0.977 0.994 0.971 0.917 0.912 0.918 -3.19%
3-Year Average 1.014 0.996 1.009 0.974 0.954 0.906 0.971
Weighted 3-Yr 1.021 0.993 1.012 0.988 0.942 0.909 0.965
5-Year Average 0.993 1.006 1.006 0.965 0.948 0.924 0.980
Weighted 5-Yr 1.009 1.000 1.008 0.975 0.945 0.915 0.972
2016-2019 0.980 1.014 1.006 0.963 0.955 0.927 0.995
1
Annual growth rates in grades 9-12 adjusted for tuition students from Norwich. The projection assumes
9 Norwich residents will enroll in grade 9 annually.
2
Estimated by comparing the enrollment in grades 3-8 one year with the enrollment in grades 2-7 the prior year with adjustments
for residents out and non-residents in.
Grade 9 enrollments based upon three-year averages of the annual resident growth rates plus 9 students from
20
Norwich in grade 9 in 2021 and 10 in 2021-29.
21