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COLCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS
ENROLLMENT PROJECTED TO 2030
Peter M. Prowda, PhD
28 Old Mill Court
Simsbury, CT 06070
(860) 658-9919
peteprowda@yahoo.com
November 5, 2020
Table of Contents
Section Page
Introduction 1
Perspective 1
Current Enrollment 2
Projection Method 3
Total Enrollment 5
Colchester Elementary School Enrollment 6
Jack Jackter School Enrollment 7
William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment 8
Bacon Academy Enrollment 9
Factors Affecting the Projection 10
Context of the Projection 13
Prior Projections of Enrollment 17
Summary 18
Appendices 19
List of Tables
1. 2020 Enrollment 2
2. Total Enrollment 5
3. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment 6
4. Jack Jackter School Enrollment 7
5. William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment 8
6. Bacon Academy Enrollment 9
7. Analysis of Kindergarten Enrollment 11
2
List of Figures Page
1. Colchester Enrollment 1970 to Date 2
2. Schools Attended by Town Residents, 2020 2
3. Resident and Open Choice Enrollment by Grade, 2020 3
4. Total Enrollment 5
5. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment 6
6. Jack Jackter School Enrollment 7
7. William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment 8
8. Bacon Academy Enrollment 9
9. Births since 1980 10
10. Kindergarten Yield from Birth Cohort 10
11. Grade to Grade Growth Rates 11
12. Town Population Growth 2010 to 2019 13
13. Projected Colchester Population Ages 0-19 13
14. Colchester Women of Child-Bearing Age 14
15. Recent Changes in the Labor Force 14
16. Net New Housing Units 14
17. Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes and Condominiums 15
18. Annual High School Dropout Rate 15
19. Non-Public School Enrollment 15
20. Residents Enrolled in Other Public Schools 16
21. Tuition Students attending Bacon Academy 16
23. Estimated Student Migration 16
24. Prior Projections of Enrollment 17
List of Appendices
A. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2030: Primary and Intermediate Grades 19
B. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2030: Middle and High School Grades 20
3
Introduction
This report presents a ten-year projection of enrollment for the Colchester Public Schools. It is based on
students enrolled in Colchester schools, a PK-2, 3-5, 6-8 and 9-12 grade alignment. The report includes
51 years of enrollment to place the projection into a wider historical perspective. One of the primary
drivers of future enrollment is births to residents. The report examines births and their relationship to
kindergarten enrollment. Several factors that influence school enrollment - town population, women of
child-bearing age, employment, housing, high school dropouts, non-public enrollment, resident
enrollment in other public schools, non-resident enrollment in Colchester schools and migration - are
presented. Finally, the accuracy of earlier projections is examined.
Enrollment projections are a valuable planning tool. For budgeting, the numbers can place requested
expenditures into a per pupil context. This can inform the public about which expenditures represent
continuing expenditures to support on-going programs and expenditures for school improvement and
program expansion. They are an essential step in determining the staffing that will be needed in the
future. This may facilitate the transfer of teachers from one grade to another or allow the hiring process to
start earlier, which can increase the likelihood of attracting the best teachers in the marketplace.
Projections are a critical and required step in planning for school facilities. The State of Connecticut
requires eight-year school-based projections as a critical component of determining the size of the project
for which reimbursement is eligible. This report is appropriate for that purpose for all of your schools. In
some communities the projection can determine the number of places they can make available to urban
students as part of a regional desegregation effort.
This projection was run during the Covid-19 epidemic which has had profound fiscal and physical
implications. If fiscal issues dominate, we might expect students to return from private schools and a
decline in births in 2021 and 2022. If physical (social distance) issues dominate, we might expect fewer
children riding buses to magnet schools, more families deciding to home-school their children, or more
families choosing private schools with smaller class sizes. My initial take is that these factors seem to
have had a greater negative impact on elementary enrollment. A key assumption behind the method used
in this report is that enrollment patterns in the near future will be reflected in the patterns of the recent
past. I assume that the pandemic will be substantially behind us by the fall of 2021. I have made what I
believe are the best possible adjustments to this unique situation.
Perspective
Enrollment projections typically use the most recent five years of data. While the most recent past is
viewed as the best predictor of the near future, it is informative to look at a broader perspective. Figure 1
shows the enrollment in Colchester from 1970 to date.
Enrollment in the Colchester Public Schools grew from 1,828 students in 1970 to 1,906 students in 1975.
Between then and 1981, enrollment went on a brief decline that took it to 1,483 students. In those six
years, enrollment declined by 423 students or 22.2 percent. Between 1981 and 2006 enrollment increased
by 1,759 students. The 3,242 students enrolled in 2006 was the all-time peak and represented a huge 119
percent increase over the 1981 low. Enrollment then entered a second downward cycle. Between 2006
and 2020 enrollment declined by 1,046 students or 32.3 percent. The 2020 enrollment of 2,196 students
is similar to that of 1994.
Colchester's enrollment pattern is only roughly similar to that of the state's public schools. Between its
1971 peak and 1988, Connecticut public school enrollment declined by 31.5 percent. State enrollment hit
a secondary peak in 2004. It grew 24.5 percent between the 1988 low and 2004. State enrollment
declined by a projected 13.0 percent between 2004 and 2020. The 1970 to 1975 growth in Colchester was
steeper that the state's. The subsequent enrollment decline in Colchester was much shorter in length than
the state's and less deep. Colchester’s 1981 to 2006 growth period was much longer than the state’s and
4
very much greater in magnitude. Colchester's second cycle of decline has been shorter than the state's but
more severe. Had ColchesterFigure 1. Colchester
followed Enrollment
the state pattern 1970it3to
of enrollment, 3 3Date
would3 have had only 1,366
3 33332223 33
students enrolled in October of 2020 instead of your enrollment2 1of 2,196.
1 1 1 1 2
0 2
3500 2 0 55624380 0 2
228910 7 8 2
9 8 4 9 2 8 0 4 8 1 8 7 6 2 2,2,
2660092 7 3 5
3000 2424 0
4 0 3 4 4 2,2,2,
22 9 3 57333
1 110 10 81 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 9 6 28119
2500 1 8 8 8 8 9 8 1 1 1 1 1 9 9
8
1 2
8 7 11 11111 67836 2
Enrollment
6
266890676651 5 6 6 3 45
2000 8 9 9 5 8 6 8 4 5 4 5 9 0 5
65 0 05 0
913819147727
235782
1500
1000
500
0
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
October of Year
Colchester State Pattern
Current Enrollment
Table 1 and Figure 2 provide a picture of where Colchester residents attended school on October 1, 2020.
The data, provided by the Colchester Central Office, should be considered preliminary. The non-public
data were projected. They show that 89.4 percent of Colchester's school-age residents attended the
Colchester Public Schools in October of 2020. A projected 75 school-age residents (3.1 percent) attended
non-public schools in state. The number attending private schools out-of-state is not known. This figure
includes nine students paid by the district to attend a non-public special education program.
Table 1. 2020 Enrollment
Numbe Percen
r t
Residents
Figure 2. Schools Attended by Town
A. Colchester Public 2,171 89.4%
Residents, 2020
B. Magnet 42 1.7% Tech+ Other Non- Home-
Magnet Ag Public,Public,School
C. Tech.+ Ag. Sci. 60 2.5% ,2% Sci,2% 1% 3% ed,2%
D. Other Public 32 1.3%
E. Non-Public 75 3.1%
F. Home-Schooled 49 2.0%
Total (A+B+C+D+E) 2,429
G. Non-Residents 25 Town
Total Enrollment Public,
(A+G) 2,196 89%
5
Forty-two school-age residents attended charter or magnet schools (1.7 percent). Sixty students attended
a state technical high school or an agriculture science program (2.5 percent). Thirty-two students (1.3
percent) attended another public school, most in a special education program run by a Regional Service
Center. There were 25 non-residents who attended Bacon Academy on a tuition basis in 2020. The
projections in this report are based upon the 2,196 residents and non-residents who attend the Colchester
Public Schools on October 1, 2020 (See “Total Enrollment” on the prior page).
Figure 3 shows the October 1, 2020 enrollment by grade of Colchester and Norwich students in the
Colchester Public Schools. The children in pre-kindergarten programs are not shown. Grade 10 had the
largest enrollment with 197 students. Grades 9, 11 and 12 had at least 175 students enrolled. Grade 2
was the smallest class with only 130 students. Grade 4 had 139 students enrolled and grade 1 had 153.
Without a solid in-migration or an increase in births, this pattern usually results in a future enrollment
decline. If current conditions continue, this year's kindergarten class of 147 students could have 158
students when it enters grade 3 at the Jack Jackter School in 2023, 154 students when it enters grade 6 at
the William J. Johnson Middle School in 2026 and 160 students when it enters grade 9 at Bacon Academy
in 2029. All except grade 3 are below the current enrollment in those grades. The current year
enrollment by grade is the starting point for this projection. How it moves forward is discussed below.
Figure 3. Enrollment By Grade, 2020
250
200 197
184 187
170 169 175
159 165
147
Enrollment
150 143 139 145
130
100
50
0
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
Projection Method
The projections in this report were generated primarily using the cohort survival method. This is the
standard method used by people running enrollment projections. For the grades above kindergarten, I
compute grade-to-grade growth rates for ten years (see Appendices A and B). For example, if the number
of fourth graders this year is 143 and the number of third graders last year was 140, then the growth rate is
1.021. Growth rates above 1.000 indicate that students moved in, transferred from non-public schools or
other public schools or were retained. Growth rates below 1.000 mean that students moved out,
transferred to private or other public schools, dropped out, or were not promoted from the prior grade.
For each grade I calculated five different averages of the year-to-year growth rates: a three-year average;
a weighted three-year average; a four-year average from 2016 to 2019; a five-year average and a weighted
6
five-year average. I choose the average that seems to best fit the data. The average growth rate for a
grade is applied to the prior year’s enrollment from the prior grade. The projection builds grade by grade
and year by year.
The growth rates used in the projection were based on four-year averages (from 2016 to 2019) of the
observed grade-to-grade growth. This eliminates the negative impact of Covid-19 on enrollment in 2020.
This was the highest of the four averages calculated. In kindergarten I used the four-year averages (from
2016 to 2019). In grade 9, I adjusted the annual growth rates in 2015 to 2020 to reflect residents only. I
then assumed 9 students (the average over the past three years) from Norwich would enroll in grade 9 in
2020 and annually thereafter. I adjusted enrollment in grades 10-12 based on the four-year average
attrition.
I broke kindergarten into five-year olds, six-year olds entering kindergarten for the first time and
repeaters. With births returning to more normal levels, I used a four-year average (2016-2019) of each
component for all the years of the projection. I projected pre-kindergarten enrollment from the four-year
average (2016-2019) of the ratio of prekindergarten enrollment one year with the average of births three-
and four-years ago.
The number of children home-schooled jumped from 15 in 2019 to 49 in 2020. I assumed that increase
was due to parents’ concerns about Covid-19. I have assumed in this report that the impact of Covid-19
will be substantially behind us by October, 2021. Accordingly, I assumed that 50 percent of the students
home-schooled in 2020 would return to the Colchester Public Schools in 2021 and that 50 percent of the
balance would return in 2022. That model would return the number home-schooled to about 15 students
in 2023.
To extend the projections beyond four years, I needed to estimate births for the years 2020 to 2025. The
Connecticut State Department of Public Health recorded 144 births to Colchester residents in 2017. That
is the latest official count. The provisional counts were 135 in 2018 and 159 in 2019. These rarely
change. I estimated there would be 138 births in 2020 from the number of in-state births through
September of 2020, expected number of in-state births from October to December based on the ratio of
October to December births versus January to September births over the past five years and the average
out-of-state births in 2018 and 2019. I used the Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projections of
women of child-bearing ages in 2020 and 2025 along with my estimate of the 2018 fertility rate for
Colchester to estimate births in 2020 and 2025. I calculated annual growth rates for 2020 to 2025 and
applied them to the moving three-year averages of births starting in 2018 and 2020 to estimate births
through 2025. I adjusted births downward by three percent in 2021 and 2022 based on the change in the
August unemployment rates in 2010 and 2020. Research has shown decreased birth rates after periods of
increased unemployment and employment insecurity. That resulted in an average of 146 births annually
in the 2021 to 2025 period.
Enrollment data from 2010 to 2019 were taken from files provided by the Connecticut State Department of
Education. Note that current district-level data on the Department's website may include special education
students educated outside of the district and exclude students in a Detention Center. These are recent changes
to the way the Department reports enrollment data. Projections require consistency. The data I have chosen
for this analysis exclude special education students educated outside of the district and may include students
in a Detention Center. Enrollment data can change daily until an audited final file is closed. This process can
take up to two years. Thus, it is possible that the enrollment data in this report could differ slightly from data
in earlier reports and that may have been reported by your Board of Education to the public. The Colchester
central office provided enrollments in 2020. Births from 1980 to 2020 were provided by the Healthcare
Quality, Statistics, Analysis and Reporting Unit of the State Department of Public Health.
7
Total Enrollment
Table 2 and Figure 4 present the observed total enrollment in Table 2. Total Enrollment
Colchester schools from 2010 to 2020 and projected enrollment
through 2030. Detailed grade-by-grade data may be found in Percent
Appendices A and B. Total enrollment in Colchester fell from 3,078 Year Students Change
students in 2010 to 2,196 students in in 2020. Enrollment 2010 3,078
plummeted by 882 students or 28.7 percent between 2010 and 2020. 2011 3,017 -2.0%
I project that public-school enrollment statewide will have declined 2012 2,880 -4.5%
7.4 percent in that period. 2013 2,733 -5.1%
2014 2,638 -3.5%
2015 2,551 -3.3%
Between 2009 and 2019, the latest data available, the enrollment loss
2016 2,426 -4.9%
of 27.9 percent in Colchester was in the largest among similar (DRG 2017 2,438 0.5%
D) towns in the area. Rocky Hill gained 2.2 percent. The losses in 2018 2,311 -5.2%
Cromwell (-3.9 percent), Wethersfield (-6.1 percent), East Hampton 2019 2,312 0.0%
(-9.3 percent), Newington (-10.6 percent), East Lyme (-13.2 percent), 2020 2,196 -5.0%
Berlin (-13.4 percent), Clinton (-17.0 percent) and Old Saybrook 2021 2,190 -0.3%
(-25.1 percent) were all smaller than Colchester’s loss. 2022 2,166 -1.1%
2023 2,125 -1.9%
I project that the enrollment decline will continue through 2023 and 2024 2,130 0.2%
then recover. Next year, I anticipate that total enrollment will 2025 2,131 0.0%
2026 2,135 0.2%
decrease by 5-10 students. I anticipate that the enrollment low will
2027 2,135 0.0%
come in 2023 at about 2,125 students. By the year 2030, enrollment 2028 2,155 0.9%
could approach 2,200 students. That would be essentially unchanged 2029 2,184 1.3%
from the October 2020 count. In the state's public schools, I am 2030 2,199 0.7%
projecting an 8.7 percent decline between 2020 and 2030. Total
enrollment in Colchester could average close to 2,155 students over the ten-year projection period
compared to an average total enrollment of 2,550 students over the past ten years.
Figure 4. Total Enrollment
3,500 3,07
3,01
8 7 2,88 2,73
3,000 0 2,63 2,55
3
8 1 2,42 2,43
2,31 2,31
2,500 6 8 2,19
1 2 2,19 2,19 2,16 2,12 2,13 2,13 2,13 2,13 2,15 2,18
6 0 6 5 0 1 5 5 5 4 9
Enrollment
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October of Year
Actual Projected
8
Colchester Elementary School Enrollment
Table 3 and Figure 5 present actual enrollment at the Colchester Table 3. Colchester
Elementary School in 2010 to 2020 and projected enrollment to 2030. Elementary School
Enrollment by grade may be found in Appendix A. Enrollment in Enrollment
grades PK-2 declined from 698 students in 2010 to 503 students in
2016 and then rebounded to 555 students in 2019. There were losses Percent
of ten percent or more in 2012, 2013 and 2016. The 2020 enrollment Year Student Change
2010 s
698
dropped to 506 students. The 10-year loss of 192 students represented
2011 680 -2.6%
27.5 percent of the enrollment in 2010. I project that public-school 2012 612 -10.0%
enrollment statewide in grades K-2 will have declined 11.3 percent in 2013 551 -10.0%
that period. 2014 542 -1.6%
2015 570 5.2%
If a typical kindergarten class emerged from the unusually large 2016 503 -11.8%
number of births in 2016 and a portion of the students who are being 2017 543 8.0%
home-schooled during the Covid-19 epidemic return, then next year’s 2018 533 -1.8%
enrollment could reach 570 students, a 12.8 percent increase over this 2019 555 4.1%
year. By 2030, PK-2 enrollment at the Colchester Elementary School 2020 506 -8.8%
2021 571 12.8%
could be close to 600 students. This would be similar to the number
2022 595 4.2%
enrolled in 2012. This would be about 100 students more than 2020, a 2023 597 0.3%
gain of about 19 percent. In grades K-2 in the state's public schools, I 2024 591 -1.0%
am projecting a 6.0 percent enrollment decline. Over the ten-year 2025 586 -0.8%
projection period, I believe enrollment in grades PK-2 could average 2026 595 1.5%
about 590 students compared to the average of 560 students observed 2027 582 -2.2%
over the past ten years. 2028 589 1.2%
2029 598 1.5%
These figures include the children in your pre-kindergarten program. 2030 604 1.0%
Program enrollment ranged from 53 children in 2016 to 104 children in 2019. There were 86 children
enrolled in 2020. My projection model, based on births three- and four-years ago, projects pre-kindergarten
enrollment could range from 95 to 101 students over the next ten years.
Figure 5. Colchester Elementary School Enrollment
800
698 680
700
612 595 597 591 586 595 582 589 598 604
600 551 542 570 571
543 533 555
503 506
500
PK-2 Enrollment
400
300
200
100
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October of Year
Actual Projected
9
Jack Jackter School Enrollment
Table 4 and Figure 6 present actual enrollment at the Jack Jackter Table 4. Jack Jackter
School from 2010 to 2020 and projected enrollment to 2030. School Enrollment
Enrollment by grade may be found in Appendix A. Enrollment at the
school fell irregularly from 688 students in 2010 to 443 students in Year Student Change
2020. There were declines of greater than five percent in 2015, 2016, 2010 s
688
2018 and 2019. Between 2010 and 2020 enrollment declined by 245 2011 654 -4.9%
2012 630 -3.7%
students or 35.6 percent. I project that enrollment in grades 3-5 will
2013 614 -2.5%
have declined 9.7 percent in that period in the state's public schools. 2014 585 -4.7%
2015 531 -9.2%
I believe that future enrollment in grades 3-5 at the Jack Jackter 2016 498 -6.2%
School will drift downward and then recover. I expect an enrollment 2017 513 3.0%
low of close to 430 students in 2021. I expect enrollment could once 2018 482 -6.0%
again exceed 500 students in 2025 and remain near or at that level 2019 456 -5.4%
through 2030. I project the 2030 enrollment could be about 495 2020 443 -2.9%
students. That would be roughly the level in 2018. Over the ten-years 2021 432 -2.5%
from 2020 to 2030, I project a net increase of about 50 students or 2022 445 3.0%
2023 443 -0.4%
between 11 and 12 percent. Over the ten-year projection period, I
2024 491 10.8%
believe enrollment in grades 3-5 could average about 485 students 2025 508 3.5%
compared to the average of 541 students observed over the past ten 2026 509 0.2%
years. In the state's public schools, I project that enrollment in grades 2027 508 -0.2%
3-5 will decline by 11.6 percent between 2020 and 2030. 2028 501 -1.4%
2029 507 1.2%
2030 494 -2.6%
Figure 6. Jack Jackter School Enrollment
800
700 688 654
630 614
600 585
531
498 513 482 491 508 509 508 501 507 494
3-5 Enrollment
500 456 443
432 445 443
400
300
200
100
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
OctoberProjected
Actual of Year
10
William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment
Table 5 and Figure 7 present actual enrollment in grades 6-8 in 2010 Table 5. William J. Johnson to
2020 and projected enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle Middle School Enrollment
School to 2030. Enrollment by grade may be found in Appendix B. Grades
The school’s enrollment fell from 705 students in 2010 to 504 in Year 6-8 Change
2020. That was a loss of 201 students or 28.5 percent. The last time 2010 705
enrollment in these grades was near that level was 1994. I project that 2011 700 -0.7%
public-school enrollment in Connecticut will have fallen 6.3 percent in 2012 701 0.1%
those grades in those 10 years. 2013 668 -4.7%
2014 625 -6.4%
2015 600 -4.0%
I expect that enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle School will
2016 605 0.8%
drift irregularly downward for the next four years and then recover. 2017 571 -5.6%
All the students who will attend these grades over the next ten years 2018 520 -8.9%
school have already been born. Next year I anticipate that enrollment 2019 517 -0.6% in
grades 6-8 will decline by about 20 students. I expect the enrollment 2020 504 -2.5%
low will come in 2024 at about 430 students. Pushed, in part, by a 2021 485 -3.8%
large increase in 2027, I believe enrollment could be close to 505 2022 457 -5.8%
students at the projection’s end. Over the ten-years, I project a zero 2023 445 -2.6%
net-gain. Over the ten-year projection period, I believe enrollment in 2024 431 -3.1%
grades 6-8 at the Middle School will average about 470 students 2025 441 2.3%
2026 440 -0.2%
compared to the average of 601 students in grades 6-8 observed over
2027 487 10.7%
the past ten years. In the state's public schools, I project that 2028 504 3.5%
enrollment in grades 6-8 will decline by11.0 percent in the next ten 2029 505 0.2%
years. 2030 504 -0.2%
Figure 7. William J. Johnson Middle School Enrollment
800
705 700 701
700 668
625
600 605
600 571
520 517 504
487 504 505 504
6-8 Enrollment
500 485
457 445
431 441 440
400
300
200
100
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October ofProjected
Actual Year
11
Bacon Academy Enrollment
Grade 9 is the first opportunity to attend state technical high schools Table 6. Bacon Academy and
agriculture science and technology centers. Preliminary October 2020 Enrollment
data show that 83.8 percent of Colchester residents enrolled in grade 9
were enrolled in the district. I project 10 students (4.3 percent) will Percent
Year Student Change
have enrolled in non-public schools in state. Sixteen 9th graders (7.1 2010 s
987
percent) were enrolled in a technical high school or an agriculture 2011 983 -0.4%
science program. There were four 9th grade students (1.8 percent) 2012 937 -4.7%
enrolled in an area magnet school and three in another public school. 2013 900 -3.9%
There were also four students home-schooled (1.8 percent). 2014 886 -1.6%
2015 850 -4.1%
Table 6 and Figure 8 present enrollment at the Bacon Academy. 2016 820 -3.5%
2017 811 -1.1%
Grade-by-grade enrollment may be found in Appendix B. Enrollment fell
2018 776 -4.3%
from 987 students in 2010 to 743 students in 2020. This decline came 2019 784 1.0%
after a 25-year period of enrollment growth that ended in 2009. 2020 743 -5.2%
Between 2010 and 2020, grade 9-12 enrollment decreased by 244 2021 702 -5.5%
students or 24.7 percent. I project that statewide public-school 2022 669 -4.7%
enrollment in grades 9-12 will have fallen 5.9 percent in that ten-year 2023 640 -4.3%
period. 2024 617 -3.6%
2025 596 -3.4%
I expect that next year's enrollment at Bacon Academy will be 40 2026 591 -0.8%
students less than this year. I expect enrollment will fall below 700 2027 558 -5.6%
2028 561 0.5%
students in 2022. I anticipate an enrollment low of 560 students in
2029 574 2.3%
2027 before a slight rebound to about 600 students at the projection’s 2030 597 4.0%
end. The 2030 count would be about 145 students, 20 percent, below the
October 2020 count. Statewide, I have projected an 8.7 percent decline in public school grade 9-12
enrollment between 2020 and 2030. I believe enrollment at the high school could average about 610 students
over the next ten years compared to the average of 849 students observed over the past ten years.
Figure 8. Bacon Academy Enrollment
1200
1000 987 983 937
900 886
850 820
811
800 776 784 743
Enrollment
702 669
640 617
596 591 597
600 558 561 574
400
200
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October of Year
Actual Projected
12
Factors Affecting the Projection
The primary reasons for elementary enrollment change lie in the births, the yield from the birth cohort and
grade-to-grade migration. Figure 9 presents the actual and provisional births from 1980 to 2019¸ and
estimated births from 2020 to 2025. Births ranged from a high of 245 in 1990 to a low of 111 in 2013. There
were 144 births recorded in 2017. That is the latest official count. The provisional counts are 135 births in
2018 and 159 births in 2019. From in-state births through September, I estimate there will be 138 births in
calendar year 2020. From 2000 to 2009, there was an average of 186 births annually. In the five years from
2011 to 2015, this fall’s kindergarten through 4th graders, births averaged 130. Births in the 2016 through
2020 period will average close to 147. The projection in years 2026 to 2030 assumes an average of 146 births
annually between 2021 and 2025. This was based on the Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projection of
Colchester women of child-bearing ages and my estimate of 2018 fertility in Colchester.
Figure 9. Births Since 1980
2
4
250 5
200 1
5
Number of Births
9 Actual
150 1 Projected
1
1
100
50
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Calendar Year
Figure 10 depicts the kindergarten yield five and six years after the birth year from 2005 to 2015 for
Colchester residents attending Figure 10. Kindergarten Yield From Birth
kindergarten in the Colchester Public Cohort
Schools. The dark blue indicates the birth 140%
cohorts affected by full-day kindergarten, 113.6 116.2 115.8
111.5
which started in 2013. There were 133 120% 100.5 101.8 % 104.2 99.4 106.4 % %
%
% 94.0 91.4 %
births in 2014 and 158 children enrolled % % %
100% % %
in Colchester kindergarten at age five in
2019 and an additional 17 who first 80%
Yield
enrolled in kindergarten at age six in 60%
2020. That was a yield of 116 percent.
The yield from the birth cohort ranged 40%
from a low 91 percent in 2011 to a high 20%
of 116 percent in 2013 and 2014. The
estimated yield in 2015 was 112 percent. 0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
That yield is an estimate because we will Birth Year
not know the number of students that will
13
first enter as six-year olds until October, 2021. Yields above 100 percent generally mean that parents
who give birth elsewhere move into town before their child enters kindergarten. In the four-year pre-
Covid-19 look-back period of the projection, the yield was 108 percent.
Table 7 gives a history of enrollment in kindergarten since 2010 and relates the components of kindergarten
enrollment back to the appropriate birth cohort. Retention is tied to the prior year's kindergarten enrollment.
With births returning to more normal levels, I estimated kindergarten enrollment using the four-year average
(2016-2019) growth of retentions, and yields from births five and six years ago. Thus, I estimated
kindergarten from 95.2 percent of births five years ago, 11.3 percent of births six years ago, and 4.1 percent of
current kindergarten students retained.
Table 7. Analysis of Kindergarten Enrollment
Yield Yield Total
Retained - - - - Non-Retained - - - - From From Yield
From Born 5-Years Prior Born Births Births From
Colcheste
Birth Prior r Non- 6 Years Percent 5-Years 6-Years Birth
Birth Retaine
Year Year s K Year Resident Resident Prior d Prior Prior Cohort
201 20
0 2005 190 2 5 172 0 25 2.1% 90.5% 12.0% 100.5%
201 18
1 2006 169 0 6 155 0 19 3.0% 91.7% 10.0% 101.8%
201 17
2 2007 147 0 5 148 0 17 2.8% 100.7% 10.1% 113.6%
201 15
3 2008 144 8 6 133 0 19 3.5% 92.4% 12.9% 104.2%
201 16
4 2009 164 2 2 143 0 17 1.3% 87.2% 11.8% 99.4%
201 14
5 2010 151 7 1 125 0 20 0.6% 82.8% 12.2% 94.0%
201 13
6 2011 139 8 8 113 0 17 5.4% 81.3% 11.3% 91.4%
201 15
7 2012 140 5 7 134 0 14 5.1% 95.7% 10.1% 106.4%
201 12
8 2013 111 7 2 114 0 15 1.3% 102.7% 10.7% 116.2%
201 15
9 2014 133 8 6 137 0 15 4.7% 103.0% 13.5% 115.8%
202 14
0 2015 127 7 4 126 0 17 2.5% 99.2% 12.8% 111.5%
3-Year Average 2.7% 101.6% 12.2% 114.5%
Weighted 3-Year Average 3.1% 101.1% 12.7% 113.7%
5-Year Average 3.7% 96.0% 11.6% 108.3%
Weighted 5-Yr Average 3.4% 99.3% 12.1% 111.6%
2016-2019 4.1% 95.2% 11.3% 107.5%
The correlation between births and kindergarten enrollment five-year later was a high 0.94 over the 1995
to 2020 period. If this relationship were used to predict kindergarten enrollment, the estimate would have
been off by an average of eight children annually over the past ten years. The cohort survival method,
even with my breakout into five-year olds, six-year old delayed entrants and children retained, cannot
overcome the underlying unpredictability of kindergarten enrollment from earlier births.
14
In the four-year look-back period of the kindergarten projection, births ranged from 111 to 140. Future
kindergarten classes will be based on 135-159 births. That is somewhat above the range in the look-back
period. We have to trust that the growth rate from birth to kindergarten will not change when births
increase. If it does, future kindergarten enrollment could be over-estimated.
The “Connecticut Early Childhood Report on Changing the Kindergarten Date,” mandated by Public Act
14-39, recommended that the start date for kindergarten be moved back to October 1st phased in one
month increments over the course of three years. It further recommended the elimination of the section of
C.G.S Sec. 10-184 which allows parents the option of not enrolling their age-eligible child. Funds for the
implementation have not yet been made available by the General Assembly. Unless the state’s fiscal
situation changes for the better or a court intervenes, I do not believe this common-sense change will be
implemented. Once implemented, the changes will very slightly decrease the size of your kindergarten
class for three years and increase your pre-kindergarten enrollment. This change is not built into this
projection, but will be built into future projections once the implementation date is set.
Figure 11 gives a perspective of the grade-to-grade growth rates for resident students attending the
Colchester schools. An "x" indicates the average growth rate used in this projection. The diamond is the
growth observed between last year and this year. The upper line indicates the largest growth rate
observed over the past ten years and the lower line, the lowest. For example, in grade 2 the projection
used a growth multiplier of 1.034 over the prior year’s 1st grade enrollment. The rate between 2019 and
2020 was 1.016. Over the past ten years, the rate ranged from a low of 0.976 to a high of 1.078. In
general, the narrower the gap between the two lines is, the greater the accuracy of the projection. The
growth rates used in the projection were based on a three-year average of the observed grade-to-grade
growth.
Figure 11. Grade to Grade Growth Rates
Most model growth rates were in the middle to the upper end of the ten-year range. Grades 10 and 11
were the exceptions.
1.10 Most model growth rates were close to the 2020 rates. The 2020 rates were well
below the projection growth rates in grades 2, 3 and 5. The 2020 rates set ten-year lows in grades 1, 5, 7,
10 and 12; they1.05
set a 10-year high in grade 6 only. Six of the eight elementary growth rates are above
2020
1.000, indicating that children are moving into the Colchester schools. The model growthHighrates in grades
2-12 averaged 0.989. That was essentially the same as last year’s projection. The comparable
Low rate for
2020 was 0.965.1.00The 20-year median of those annual grade-to-grade rates was 0.995 Projection
Rate
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade Moving Into
15
Context of the Projection
The cohort-survival method typically needs only births and a few years of recent enrollment data to
generate a projection. Mathematically, nothing else matters. But enrollment changes do not occur in a
vacuum. Events and policies in the district, community and region all have some bearing on enrollment.
Remember that a basic assumption of the cohort-survival method is that the recent past can be a good
predictor of the near future. It is incumbent for every receiver of a projection to determine what events
happened in the past few years and whether they are likely to change.
To assist in this endeavor, this report examines several factors that could affect enrollment: town
population; women of child-bearing age; the labor force; new home construction; sales of existing homes;
high school dropout rate; non-public enrollment; non-resident enrollment in Colchester schools; resident
enrollment in other public schools and student migration.
Figure 12. Estimated Population Growth,
2010 to 2019 -3.23% -0.31%
-1.19% -0.39%
0.0%
Estimated Growth
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
Colchester State New DRG D
London
Cnty
Figure 12 presents the US Census Bureau and 2025. They also projected the population ages 5-9
estimate of Colchester population growth would fall from 824 in 2020 to 790 (-4.1 percent) in
between 2010 and 2019. The estimate is 2025. They projected that number of children ages 10-
based, in part, on relative housing growth 14 would decline sharply from 1,011 in 2020 to 876 (-
within New London County. In that period, 13.4 percent) in 2025. The number of youth ages 15-19
the population is estimated to have declined was projected to decline from 1,136 in 2020 to 915 in
by 191 people. Colchester’s population loss 2025 (-19.5 percent). This independent projection
of 1.2 percent ranked it 79th in the state. In forecasts a steeper decline than the projection in this
contrast, New London County fell by 3.2 report.
percent, the state fell by 0.4 percent and
communities with similar economic and
need characteristics (DRG D) fell by 0.3
percent.
Figure 13 presents the Connecticut State
Data Center’s 2017 population projections
for Colchester residents 0-19 years of age
in the years 2015, 2020 and 2025. They
projected that the population ages 0-4
would increase 9.3 percent between 2020
16
Figure 13. Projected Colchester
Population Ages 0-19
1400
Number of Children
1200
1000 2015
2020
800
2025
600
400
200
0
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19
Age Group
17
Figure 14 presents the Connecticut State Figure 14. Colchester Women of Child-
Data Center’s 2017 projections of the Bearing Age
number of women of child-bearing age in 700
Colchester from 2015 to 2025. The Center
600
Number of Women
projected a 3.6 percent decline in the
2015
number of Colchester women ages 15-44 500
2020
between 2020 and 2025. However, in 400 2025
communities like yours, 30-34-year-old
300
women have the highest rate of births. The
Center projected that the number of women 200
in that group would grow from 443 in 2020 100
to 464 (+9.2 percent) in 2025. The second 0
highest birth rate in communities like 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to
Colchester is women ages 25-29. The 19 24 29 34 39 44 49
Center projected that the number in that age Age Group
range would grow from 434 in 2020 to 464
(+6.9 percent) in 2020.
Figure 15 examines the number of people
in the labor market from the US Figure 15. Recent Changes in the Labor
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Force
Statistics. These are people 16 years of age
or older who were working or actively were 10000 94499491 9368 9248 93949381940494099429 9526
seeking employment. The Colchester labor
8000
force decreased between 2010 and 2013
Number
and then rebounded. Between 2010 and 6000
2019, the net increase was 0.81 percent.
This was better than the state (+0.1 percent) 4000
and New London County (-4.5 percent).
Colchester’s 2019 unemployment rate of 2000
3.1 percent was down 4.8 percentage points 0
from the 2010 high. It is better than the 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
state rate of 3.7 percent and the New
Calendar Year
London County rate of 3.6 percent. Covid-
19 brought Colchester’s July
unemployment rate up to 7.7 percent.
Figure 16 presents the net new housing Figure 16. Net New Housing Units
permits issued from 2009 to 2019 from the
State Department of Economic and
70
Community Development. In the past ten 63
years the number of net (of demolitions) 60
new housing permits issued in Colchester 50
New Units
ranged from a low of 18 in 2011 to a high 40
of 63 in 2016. There were 12 permits 33 34
29 28 30 31
issued in 2019. In the four-year look-back 30 25
21
period for this projection, there was an 20 18
12
average of 19 net new housing permits 10
issued.
0
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Calendar Year
18
Figure 17. Sales of Existing Single-Family
Homes and Condominiums
250
204 199 193
200 183 186
153
150
Sales
115 121 106
117
100 80
50
0
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Calendar Year
Figure 17 presents my estimate of the students from the town of Colchester. The data are from
number of sales of existing single-family the records of the Connecticut State Department of
homes and condominiums. I derived it by Education.
FigureNon-public
18. Annualenrollment
High Schoolranged from a high
Dropout
taking the number of real estate transactions of 161 students in 2010 toRatea low of 69 students in 2019,
from The Warren Group/Commercial the latest data available. In the past ten years, 1.15
Record and subtracting the number of new 1.2% in the non-public schools declined by 78%
enrollment
Percentage Drop-Outs
single-family housing units authorized the students
1.0%
or 0.90
53 percent. The 2019 non-public enrollment
prior year. The estimated number of sales represented % 2.8 percent0.75
of all students from
0.73 Colchester.
of existing homes ranged from a low of 80 0.8% ago, 0.61
Ten years 0.61 %
the figure was 4.3 percent.% I project that
0.56 0.59
in 2011 to a high of 204 in 2014. There non-public
0.6% enrollment from0.44
% % Colchester
% % will be about 75
were 186 sales of existing homes in 2019. students in 2020. %
In the four-year look-back period of the 0.4%
projection, there was an average of 190 0.12 0.13
0.2% % %
sales annually. Sales through September
are on track to approach 205 in 2020. 0.0%
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Figure 18 shows the annual percentage of
School Year Ending June 30
dropouts from grades 9-12 for the 2009-10
to 2019-20 school years. The data were
provided by the Connecticut State
Department of Education and the
Colchester central office. Dropouts are Figure 19. Non-Public School Enrollment
students who left school early, left to enroll
in a GED program, transfer to post- 180
161
secondary education prior to graduation or 160
147 141
moved but not known to be continuing. 140 131
124 118
The high school dropout rate ranged from a 120 111
Enrollment
low of 0.12 percent in 2017-18 to a high of 100 98 103
1.1 percent in the 2019-2020 school year. 80
81
Over the four years between 2016 and 69
60
2019, the average rate was 0.4 percent. The
40
2020 rate was students who stopped
attending on-line instruction and had not 20
logged in by October 1, 2020. 0
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
October of School Year
Figure 19 presents the non-public
enrollment over the past ten years for
19
Figure 20. Residents Enrolled in Other
Public Schools
200
150
Residents
100
50
55
30
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Magnet Tech+Ag Other
October of Year
Figure 20 presents the enrollment of Figure 22 presents the estimated migration of students
Colchester residents in other public schools from Colchester. The rate is adjusted for Colchester
in Connecticut from 2010 to 2020. The residents attending other public schools and non-
2020 data are preliminary. The number residentsFigure
in Colchester schools.
21. Tuition The figures
Students do not take
Attending
educated out-of-district rose from 95 in into account home-schooled children or students
Bacon Academy
2010 to 198 in 2016 and then fell to 134 in attending non-public schools. Estimated migration
2020. The number enrolled in magnet or ranged30from a low of -3.2 percent in 2020 to a high of
charter schools rose from 30 students in +1.0 percent in 2016. The data behind these 26 25may
25figures
2010 to 118 in 2016 and then fell to 42 in 25 in Appendices A and B. In the four-year 2016-
be found
20there was an
Enrollment
2019. In 2020, 42 students attended a 2019 look-back
20 period of the projection,
magnet or charter school, nine attended the average migration of -0.06 percent. This four-year rate
agriculture science program at Lyman 15 15 times in the past 33 years. The median
was lower
Memorial High, 51 attended a State over the
10 past 25 years was +0.34 percent
8
Technical High School, and 32 attended a
5
special education program run by a RESC 1 1 1
or another public-school district. 0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
October of Year
Figure 21 presents the number of Norwich
residents who attended Bacon Academy on
a tuition basis. The option started with
eight students enrolled in 2016. The Figure 22. Estimated Student Migration
number grew to 26 in 2019 and was 25 in
2020. These students represented 3.4
1.5% 0.9
percent of the Bacon Academy enrollment 0.4 6%
-1.2
in 2020. The projection assumes nine 1.0% 0.1 5% -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Estimated Migration
-3.1
Norwich residents will enroll in Colchester 0.5% 7% 5% 0% 6% 7%-1.7 0% 9%
7%
grade 9 annually. Over the next ten years, 0.0%
-0.5% 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
these tuition students from Norwich are
-1.0%
projected to average 4.9 percent of Bacon -1.5%
Academy enrollment. -2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
October of Year
20
Prior Projections of Enrollment
The cohort-survival projection method works by moving forward the pattern of recent events that are subsumed
within the grade-by-grade enrollment. This works very well when communities are stable. One way to know if
that assumption is valid is to examine how past projections have fared. Figure 24 presents the enrollment
projections that I have run for Colchester since 2008. Last year’s projection over-estimated 2020 enrollment by
81 students or 3.7 percent. The three enrollment projections that I did between 2008 and 2018 had one-year
error rates that averaged 1.7 percent. The one projection done between 2008 and 2015 had a five-year error rate
of 5.9 percent, which is 1.2 percent annualized.
Last year’s projection is running 3.7 percent high. In that analysis, I projected that K-2 enrollment would be
557 students in 2020. The actual enrollment of 506 was 51 students less than projected. The projection was
high by 10.1 percent. I projected that enrollment in grades 3-5 would be 458 students in 2020. The actual
enrollment of 443 was 15 students less than projected. The projection was high by 3.4 percent. I projected that
this year’s enrollment at William J. Johnson Middle School would be 507 students. The actual enrollment of
504 was three students less than projected. The projection was high by 0.6 percent. I projected that this fall’s
high school enrollment would be 755 students. The actual enrollment of 743 was 12 students less than
projected. The projection was high by 1.6 percent. The 2019 projection expected a pre-kindergarten enrollment
of 113 children. There were only 86 enrolled in 2020. The Covid-19 affected 2020 enrollment
disproportionately impacted younger students. This is similar to what I have observed so far this year in other
districts.
Figure 23. Prior Projections of Enrollment
3500
Actual
2008
Enrollment
3000
2017
2018
2019
2500 2020
2000
1500
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October of Year
Over the past forty years, I have found the cohort-survival method provides estimates that are sufficiently
accurate for intermediate-range policy planning. The eight-year planning horizon for school construction grants
is at the limit of the useful accuracy of the method. The method usually does not attempt to predict the future.
Its key assumption is that the near future will be like the recent past. For example, projections done in the late
2000s did not anticipate the recession of 2010. Some policy changes such as kindergarten retention, drop-out
prevention programs and the number of credits to be considered a 10th grader can be built into a new projection.
It is incumbent upon the receiver of a projection to identify planned changes so that they can be built into a
projection.
21
Summary
I project that total enrollment in 2030 will be essentially the same as 2020, right around 2,200 students. I project
that Colchester Elementary School enrollment could move upward from 506 students in 2020 to about 605
students in 2030. This would be about a 100-student gain, a growth of over 19 percent. I expect the Jack
Jackter School enrollment will increase from 443 students in 2020 to about 495 students in 2030. I believe that
future enrollment at the William J. Johnson Middle School could decline to about 430 students in 2020 and then
return to the October 1, 2020 count of 504 students in 2030. The peak enrollment at Bacon Academy was 1,003
students in 2009. Between 2020 and 2030, enrollment at the Academy could fall from 743 students to about 600
students. That would represent a loss of about 145 students, a decline of just under 20 percent.
This report is projecting a slight increase in the lower grades and a decline in enrollment in the upper grades. It
is critical to remember that a projection is just a moving forward of recent trends. Is the forecast realistic? In
the five years from 2011 to 2015 (this fall’s kindergarten through 4th graders) births averaged 130. Births in the
2016 through 2020 period will average close to 147. My model assumes that births in 2021 to 2025 will average
146. I used a 7.5 percent growth between birth and eventual kindergarten enrollment. The median over the past
15 years was 4.2 percent. (That included years when full-day kindergarten was not offered.) The average of the
grade-to grade growth rates across grades 2-12 that I used to grow future enrollment was 0.989. That is about
the same as last year. These projection multipliers averaged a Covid-19 depressed 0.965 in 2020; the median
over the last 20 years was 0.995. Taking these three key factors into consideration, I believe the projection is
realistic.
These projections are based upon several other assumptions revolving around the notion that the recent past is a
good predictor of the near future. The projection assumes that the following school policies will continue:
kindergarten will remain full-day; 11 percent of parents will delay their child’s kindergarten entry until age 6;
nine Norwich children will enroll in grade 9 annually, retention policies will not change; no expansion of
enrollment in area magnets and no change in the dropout rate. The projection assumes a student migration of
-0.06 percent; a very slight decline in non-public school enrollment; 19 new housing units will be constructed
annually; an average of 190 sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums and a slight increase in the
labor force.
Obviously Covid-19 has introduced uncertainty into this projection. I assumed that the epidemic would be
substantially behind us by October of 2021. I assumed that the pattern of growth observed between 2016 and
2019 would return. I further assumed that the increase in students home-schooled would return over the next
two years. I further assumed that the job insecurity introduced by Covid-19 would depress births in 2021 and
2022. Those are a lot more assumptions than my typical projection. You also appear to have recently changed
the number of credits required to move from grade 9 to 10. This is not built into the high school’s projection. I
expect that grade 9 will be have slightly higher enrollment than projected and grade 10 slightly lower. A bit
more caution than usual must be exercised when using these projections to make policy decisions.
It is important to remember that the cohort survival method relies on observed data from the recent past. Its key
assumption is that those conditions will persist. It does not try to predict when the economic conditions might
change. We cannot know today how long these conditions will continue. This projection should be used as a
starting point for local planning. Examine the factors and assumptions underlying the method. You know your
community best. Apply your knowledge of the specific conditions in Colchester and then make adjustments as
necessary.
22
Appendix A. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2030: Primary and
Intermediate Grades
Birt
School h Total Total
Year Year Births1 K 1 2 3 4 5 PK PK-2 3-5
2010-11 2005 190 202 228 207 214 233 241 61 698 688
2011-12 2006 169 180 197 223 204 214 236 80 680 654
2012-13 2007 147 170 171 195 222 198 210 76 612 630
2013-14 2008 144 158 164 170 196 220 198 59 551 614
2014-15 2009 164 162 161 160 168 200 217 59 542 585
2015-16 2010 151 147 171 161 163 165 203 91 570 531
2016-17 2011 139 138 141 171 170 162 166 53 503 498
2017-18 2012 140 155 144 152 174 170 169 92 543 513
2018-19 2013 111 127 160 149 151 161 170 97 533 482
2019-20 2014 133 158 128 165 142 154 160 104 555 456
2020-21 2015 127 147 143 130 159 139 145 86 506 443
Projecte
d
2021-222 2016 161 174 151 151 134 156 142 95 571 432
2022-232 2017 144 162 176 157 154 133 158 100 595 445
2023-24 2018 135 151 164 182 158 151 134 100 597 443
2024-25 2019 159 173 153 170 183 155 153 95 591 491
2025-26 2020 138 156 175 158 171 180 157 97 586 508
2026-27 2021 142 157 158 181 159 168 182 99 595 509
2027-28 2022 145 160 159 163 182 156 170 100 582 508
2028-29 2023 146 162 162 164 164 179 158 101 589 501
2029-30 2024 149 165 164 168 165 161 181 101 598 507
2030-31 2025 150 166 167 170 169 162 163 101 604 494
Projection Growth Rates3 1.011 1.034 1.006 0.983 1.011 0.661
Annual Resident Growth Rates
Migration4
2011 1.065 0.975 0.978 0.986 1.000 1.013 0.550 0.15%
2012 1.156 0.950 0.990 0.996 0.971 0.981 0.494 0.45%
2013 1.097 0.965 0.994 1.005 0.991 1.000 0.375 -0.30%
2014 0.988 1.019 0.976 0.988 1.020 0.986 0.407 0.00%
2015 0.974 1.056 1.000 1.019 0.982 1.015 0.652 0.26%
2016 0.993 0.959 1.000 1.056 0.994 1.006 0.422 0.96%
2017 1.107 1.043 1.078 1.018 1.000 1.043 0.754 0.27%
2018 1.144 1.032 1.035 0.993 0.925 1.000 0.746 -1.77%
2019 1.188 1.008 1.031 0.953 1.020 0.994 0.722 0.30%
2020 1.157 0.905 1.016 0.964 0.979 0.942 0.564 -3.19%
3-Year Ave. 1.163 0.982 1.027 0.970 0.975 0.978 0.677
Weighted 3-Year 1.165 0.961 1.024 0.965 0.984 0.969 0.647
5-Year Ave. 1.118 0.990 1.032 0.997 0.984 0.997 0.642
Weighted-5 year 1.145 0.980 1.031 0.980 0.983 0.985 0.659
2016-2019 1.105 1.011 1.034 1.006 0.983 1.011 0.661
1
2005-2019 births are from the State Department of Public Health. The 2018 and 2019 counts are provisional.
The 2020 births were based on in-state births through September. Births in 2021-2025 were based on
Connecticut State Data Center’s 2017 projection of Colchester women of child-bearing ages and my estimate of
2018 fertility rates in Colchester.
2
Enrollment in 2021 and 2022 assumes half of home-schooled students will return in 2021 and
half of those remaining will return in 2022.
3
Growth rates based on grade-to-grade rates between 2016 and 2019. Kindergarten based on four-year averages (2016-
2019) of estimated yield from births five- and six-years ago and retention.
4
Estimated by comparing the enrollment in grades 3-8 one year with the enrollment in grades 2-7 the prior year with an
adjustment for residents out and non-residents in.
23
Appendix B. Colchester Enrollment Projected by Grade to 2030: Middle and High
School Grades
6-8 9-12 District
School Year 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total Total Total
2010-11 220 241 244 245 250 239 253 705 987 3,078
2011-12 234 224 242 228 247 249 259 700 983 3,017
2012-13 229 245 227 205 221 248 263 701 937 2,880
2013-14 197 230 241 205 208 224 263 668 900 2,733
2014-15 198 195 232 226 210 213 237 625 886 2,638
2015-16 213 198 189 202 219 204 225 600 850 2,551
2016-17 188 216 201 187 199 220 214 605 820 2,426
2017-18 165 193 213 203 185 197 226 571 811 2,438
2018-19 167 164 189 197 209 174 196 520 776 2,311
2019-20 174 170 173 207 194 196 187 517 784 2,312
2020-21 165 170 169 175 197 184 187 504 743 2,196
Projected
2021-223 144 168 173 165 169 184 184 485 702 2,190
2022-233 140 147 170 168 159 158 184 457 669 2,166
2023-24 155 142 148 173 161 149 157 445 640 2,125
2024-25 131 157 143 152 166 150 149 431 617 2,130
2025-26 150 133 158 147 146 154 149 441 596 2,131
2026-27 154 152 134 161 141 136 153 440 591 2,135
2027-28 178 156 153 138 154 131 135 487 558 2,135
2028-29 167 180 157 156 132 143 130 504 561 2,155
2029-30 155 169 181 160 149 123 142 505 574 2,184
2030-31 177 157 170 183 153 139 122 504 597 2,199
Projection
Growth Rates 0.980 1.014 1.006 0.963 0.955 0.927 0.995
Annual Estimated
Growth Rates1 Migration2
2011 0.971 1.018 1.004 0.934 1.008 0.996 1.084 0.15%
2012 0.970 1.047 1.013 0.847 0.969 1.004 1.056 0.45%
2013 0.938 1.004 0.984 0.903 1.015 1.014 1.060 -0.30%
2014 1.000 0.990 1.009 0.938 1.024 1.024 1.058 0.00%
2015 0.982 1.000 0.969 0.871 0.969 0.971 1.056 0.26%
2016 0.926 1.014 1.015 0.952 0.950 0.973 1.015 0.96%
2017 0.994 1.027 0.986 0.950 0.925 0.930 0.973 0.27%
2018 0.988 0.994 0.979 0.887 0.990 0.897 0.954 -1.77%
2019 1.024 1.018 1.055 1.063 0.954 0.909 1.040 0.30%
2020 1.031 0.977 0.994 0.971 0.917 0.912 0.918 -3.19%
3-Year Average 1.014 0.996 1.009 0.974 0.954 0.906 0.971
Weighted 3-Yr 1.021 0.993 1.012 0.988 0.942 0.909 0.965
5-Year Average 0.993 1.006 1.006 0.965 0.948 0.924 0.980
Weighted 5-Yr 1.009 1.000 1.008 0.975 0.945 0.915 0.972
2016-2019 0.980 1.014 1.006 0.963 0.955 0.927 0.995
1
Annual growth rates in grades 9-12 adjusted for tuition students from Norwich. The projection assumes
9 Norwich residents will enroll in grade 9 annually.
2
Estimated by comparing the enrollment in grades 3-8 one year with the enrollment in grades 2-7 the prior year with adjustments
for residents out and non-residents in.
Grade 9 enrollments based upon three-year averages of the annual resident growth rates plus 9 students from
24
Norwich in grade 9 in 2020 and 10 in 2021-29.
25